10819 Los Santos Dr · Bayonet Point, FL 34668

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,107 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 371 Days on market

Built 1977 5,400 sqft lot Est $244k · 34% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. HUGE Price Reduction! Welcome to 10819 Los Santos Dr, a charming 2-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Home in Port Richey. A delightful single-family residence nestled in the heart of Timber Oaks. Timber Oaks is a well-established 55+ community offering a fitness center, tennis, shuffleboard, community pool, clubhouse, meeting space and more! The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal space for entertaining and everyday living. Two Comfortable Bedrooms provide ample space and natural light, ensuring a restful retreat. Two Full Bathrooms Conveniently designed to accommodate both residents and guests. The pr

Key facts

• Tennis
• Fitness center
• Golf

Tags

• 55 COMMUNITY
• GOLF
• FITNESS CENTER
• TENNIS
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Total living area listed as 1,107 square feet
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $50 (includes pool and recreational facilities); Association managed by Resource Property Management; Clubhouse on site; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water (also has well); Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Completed condition; Built within a PUD
• Exterior features: Irrigation equipment; Asphalt road access; Approximately 0.12-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Freezer; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living/dining room layout; Thermostat; Masonry wood-burning fireplace in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Schrader Elementary School (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,656 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 601 students, 82% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 48% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 577 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 371 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 371 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.98%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,540
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10433 Laburnum Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,118 (+1%)	0mo	$275,000	$246	78
11341 Winwood Pl	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,107 (0%)	1mo	$189,000	$171	73
10638 Oak Hill Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,060 (-4%)	1mo	$205,000	$193	72
10528 Cymbid Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,082 (-2%)	2mo	$255,000	$236	71
7835 Lotus Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,087 (-2%)	1mo	$269,900	$248	67
11230 Rhonda Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,046 (-6%)	1mo	$130,000	$124	64
10320 County Lake Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,032 (-7%)	0mo	$238,400	$231	60
8330 Duval Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,228 (+11%)	2mo	$220,000	$179	59
10800 Leeds Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,032 (-7%)	2mo	$190,000	$184	58
7521 Coventry Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,032 (-7%)	1mo	$230,000	$223	54
10206 Willow Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+12%)	2mo	$270,000	$218	44
10223 Flagship Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,262 (+14%)	1mo	$278,000	$220	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-19,299
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-15,855
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 577
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,720 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,057/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,532

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8024 Las Cruces Ct Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1371	$1,900	$1.39	24d	1	0.13mi
10816 Piccadilly Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,550	$1.10	12d	1	0.23mi
10802 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	24d	1	0.25mi
10632 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1193	$1,583	$1.33	24d	1	0.27mi
10801 Oldham Rd Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$1,500	$1.27	1d	1	0.31mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	24d	1	0.37mi
10502 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	24d	1	0.41mi
7839 Canna Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,450	$1.32	10d	1	0.43mi
7808 Talisman Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1063	$2,100	$1.98	24d	1	0.43mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	17d	1	0.49mi
10905 Kingsbridge Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,566	$1.33	5d	1	0.49mi
8431 Duval Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,731	$1.23	5d	1	0.50mi
10629 Cymbid Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	24d	1	0.50mi
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	24d	1	0.52mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	23d	1	0.59mi
10331 Flagship Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	0.59mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	5d	1	0.65mi
10303 Gardenia Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1054	$1,950	$1.85	24d	1	0.67mi
7438 Coventry Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	12d	1	0.69mi
10803 Hyssop St Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	10d	1	0.71mi
10225 Gardenia Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1042	$1,495	$1.43	14d	1	0.71mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,811	$1.61	5d	1	0.73mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	0.77mi
7416 Star Dust Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	21d	1	0.77mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	0.79mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	0.79mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	11d	1	0.80mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	24d	1	0.80mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	12d	1	0.80mi
10401 Oleander Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	887	$1,250	$1.41	24d	1	0.81mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	3d	1	0.82mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	12d	1	0.82mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	0.83mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	20d	1	0.83mi
8019 Portage Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1078	$2,000	$1.86	16d	1	0.84mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	24d	1	0.87mi
11103 Harding Dr Unit 2 Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,450	$1.91	20d	1	0.87mi
11635 Salmon Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	816	$1,500	$1.84	24d	1	0.91mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	21d	1	0.94mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	5d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-20
   price $160,000
2. 2026-05-10
   status Active
3. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-21
   status Active
5. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
6. 2026-01-26
   price $199,000
7. 2026-01-06
   status Active
8. 2026-01-05
   historical
9. 2025-05-14
   price $215,000
10. 2025-04-09
    listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,057 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,057 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,057
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$733
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$176
• After-tax cash flow: $1,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-27.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-09 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,057 · +257.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.