2529 Mcdonald Rd · Oyster Creek, TX 77541

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1999 7,501 sqft lot $98/sqft · at area comps Est $117k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming three-bedroom, two-bathroom mobile home offers an ideal blend of comfort and convenience, perfectly located near local chemical plants and suitable for professionals working in the area. Inside, you'll find a spacious layout that maximizes natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The well-appointed bedrooms provide ample space for relaxation, while the two bathrooms enhance the property's functionality for families or hosting guests. This mobile home is not only a great choice for homeowners but also presents a strong rental investment opportunity. With the seller eager to negotiate, now is the perfect time to submit your offers and take advantage of this great opportunity! The HVAC system was installed in 2019, and there are no back neighbors.

Key facts

• Two bathrooms
• Natural light
• Spacious layout

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• WELL-APPOINTED BEDROOMS
• TWO BATHROOMS
• STRONG RENTAL INVESTMENT
• HVAC SYSTEM INSTALLED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 0.7% in Oyster Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,483 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 590 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 9054% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.10%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,000
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: 1.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2529 Mcdonald Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$119,000	$98	99
2525 Mcdonald Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	9mo	$109,900	$90	91
2515 Oyster Creek Bnd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	6mo	$137,500	$102	73
210 Lake Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	5mo	$115,000	$95	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $8,486
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $43,115
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77541

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 590
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,522 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $312/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $970

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 783-char remark

   Show marketing remark (783 chars)

   This charming three-bedroom, two-bathroom mobile home offers an ideal blend of comfort and convenience, perfectly located near local chemical plants and suitable for professionals working in the area. Inside, you'll find a spacious layout that maximizes natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The well-appointed bedrooms provide ample space for relaxation, while the two bathrooms enhance the property's functionality for families or hosting guests. This mobile home is not only a great choice for homeowners but also presents a strong rental investment opportunity. With the seller eager to negotiate, now is the perfect time to submit your offers and take advantage of this great opportunity! The HVAC system was installed in 2019, and there are no back neighbors.

2. 2026-03-21
   price $1,200
3. 2026-02-09
   listed $1,300
4. 2026-02-06
   listed $119,000 Active 783-char remark

   Show marketing remark (783 chars)

   This charming three-bedroom, two-bathroom mobile home offers an ideal blend of comfort and convenience, perfectly located near local chemical plants and suitable for professionals working in the area. Inside, you'll find a spacious layout that maximizes natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The well-appointed bedrooms provide ample space for relaxation, while the two bathrooms enhance the property's functionality for families or hosting guests. This mobile home is not only a great choice for homeowners but also presents a strong rental investment opportunity. With the seller eager to negotiate, now is the perfect time to submit your offers and take advantage of this great opportunity! The HVAC system was installed in 2019, and there are no back neighbors.

5. 2025-04-22
   historical
6. 2025-04-03
   listed $129,000 Active
7. 2025-03-31
   historical
8. 2024-12-16
   listed $129,000 Active
9. 2023-07-11
   soldstatus Sold
10. 2023-06-09
    status Pending
11. 2023-06-02
    status Option Pending
12. 2023-05-10
    price $89,900
13. 2023-04-22
    price $98,900
14. 2023-03-07
    listed $99,900 Active
15. 2013-01-01
    historical
16. 2011-11-24
    listed $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $312 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,866/yr (+$155/mo · 597.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$312
• − Insurance: −$1,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,461
• − Management: −$1,461
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $3,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$842
• After-tax cash flow: $4,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oyster Creek

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1483
• US rank: #25420

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oyster Creek, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,996
• Household income: $66,507
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 38% Two or more races 23% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.12%
• Current HPI: 265.9301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $1,200 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed for Rent $1,300 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-16 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-06-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-06-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-10 Price Changed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2023-04-22 Price Changed $98,900 HARMLS
• 2023-03-07 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2013-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-11-24 Listed $50,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $312 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.