404 Broadway Ave · Cynthiana, KY 41031

$209,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1958 8,276 sqft lot Est $243k · 14% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice home located in Western Hills. 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths and unfinished basement. Enclosed sun-room and attached carport. Nice yard.

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Enclosed sun-room
• Nice yard

Tags

• ENCLOSED SUN-ROOM
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• NICE YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway; Carport included
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Built using block foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Block foundation; Dimensional style roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Ceiling fan(s); Insulated windows; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($795/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.5% in Cynthiana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#113 in KY, #4,911 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Harrison County (town): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #133 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 350 students, 57% FRL); Harrison County Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 607 students, 58% FRL); Harrison County High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #74 of 254 statewide, top 29%, 865 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harrison County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $162,849 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.36%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,550
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
467 W Pleasant St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+3%)	7mo	$247,500	$174	83
224 Cladorbon Dr	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,456 (+5%)	14mo	$210,000	$144	68
127 Creekview St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+6%)	1mo	$259,000	$177	66
117 Southland Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+8%)	1mo	$275,000	$184	65
138 Southland Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+6%)	4mo	$259,900	$178	64
137 Southland Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+5%)	10mo	$256,400	$176	61
106 Southland Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+6%)	13mo	$255,500	$175	58
123 Creekview St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+6%)	11mo	$250,000	$171	58
119 Creekview St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+6%)	13mo	$249,900	$171	56
125 Southland	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+10%)	9mo	$256,500	$169	56
121 Creekview St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+10%)	7mo	$256,500	$169	53
1380 Ky-356	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,198 (-14%)	3mo	$235,000	$196	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $117,935
• Equity at exit: $188,284

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $343,755
• Equity at exit: $406,041

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41031

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $445/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,545

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $209,000
16. 2026-04-14
    price $219,000
17. 2026-02-23
    listed $229,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $445 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,797 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,352/yr (+$113/mo · 303.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$445
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,563
• − Management: −$1,563
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$2,863
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$687
• After-tax cash flow: $1,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County
• NCES district ID: 2102580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $39,744
• Composite: 22.28/100
• National rank: #8138
• State rank: #133 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cynthiana

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #4911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cynthiana, KY
• Population (ZIP): 16,748

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,605 people
• By 2030: 18,361 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 17,685 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 16,845 · -9.5%
• By 2075: 14,882 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 12,314 · -33.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.5) · D 25.1% · R 73.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -48.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.5 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.31%
• Current HPI: 339.482
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $209,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $219,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $229,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $445 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.