188 Riverside Rd · Timberon, NM 88350

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1989 0.34 ac lot $86/sqft · 321% above area ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1152 sqft 6 room mobile home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths with a covered back porch on a . 335 shady-acre lot in Timberon. Enjoy the peaceful setting, hiking, ATV/UTV riding, fishing, golfing and diverse wildlife in this slow-paced mountain community located roughly 50 miles from Alamogordo. Property is on public water and taxed as real property. This is a pre-approved short sale with family representative appointed by bank through probate.

Key facts

• Atvutv riding
• Shady-acre lot
• Peaceful setting

Tags

• COVERED BACK PORCH
• SHADY-ACRE LOT
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• HIKING
• ATVUTV RIDING
• FISHING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($991 rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#156 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Cloudcroft Municipal Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #12 of 95 in NM (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.24%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $23,514
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 321.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $24,015
• Equity at exit: $44,515

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $68,449
• Equity at exit: $68,602

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88350

• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $991 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $385/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $750

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $99,000 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    This 1152 sqft 6 room mobile home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths with a covered back porch on a . 335 shady-acre lot in Timberon. Enjoy the peaceful setting, hiking, ATV/UTV riding, fishing, golfing and diverse wildlife in this slow-paced mountain community located roughly 50 miles from Alamogordo. Property is on public water and taxed as real property. This is a pre-approved short sale with family representative appointed by bank through probate.

18. 2026-03-20
    listed $114,900 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    This 1152 sqft 6 room mobile home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths with a covered back porch on a . 335 shady-acre lot in Timberon. Enjoy the peaceful setting, hiking, ATV/UTV riding, fishing, golfing and diverse wildlife in this slow-paced mountain community located roughly 50 miles from Alamogordo. Property is on public water and taxed as real property. This is a pre-approved short sale with family representative appointed by bank through probate.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $385 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $792 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 105.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$385
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$951
• − Management: −$951
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $685
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$164
• After-tax cash flow: $2,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cloudcroft Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500540
• Math proficiency: 28% —
• Reading proficiency: 48% —
• Median HH income: $45,499
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #9996
• State rank: #12 of 95 in NM

Livability — Timberon

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #21729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Timberon, NM
• City population: 406
• Population (ZIP): 406

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 41% Italian 28% Portuguese 12%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $99,000 OCAOR
• 2026-03-20 Listed $114,900 OCAOR

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $385 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.