2040 San Marcos Dr SE #206 · Winter Haven, FL 33880

$166,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · Condo public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1985 $270/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. This move-in-ready home features fresh interior paint, updated countertops, brand-new cabinets, and renovated bathrooms, offering a clean, modern feel throughout. The open-concept floor plan creates a bright and inviting living space, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides the ideal spot for a home office, guest area, or flex space to fit your lifestyle. Enjoy low-maintenance living with fantastic community amenities, including a sparkling pool and lake access — perfect for soaking up the Florida sunshine. Ideal for first-time homebuyers, investors or anyone looking for comfort, convenience, and location all in

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Lake access
• Versatile loft

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• VERSATILE LOFT
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($76/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John Snively Elementary (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 399 students, 72% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $166k implies a 189% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,971 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.16%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-27,250
• Equity at exit: $24,751

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-26,278
• Equity at exit: $14,353

Cash invested: $46,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$871
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $478/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$270
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,582

Max offer price $166,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $53	+0% $6	+5% $-41	+10% $-88
Rent	-10% $-119	-5% $-56	+0% $6	+5% $69	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $49	base $6	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,500
• Closing costs: $4,980
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2001 San Marcos Dr SE #11 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,325	$1.38	16d	1	0.06mi
2312 Isle Royale Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,499	$1.17	5d	1	0.07mi
2374 Isle Royale Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	1320	$1,700	$1.29	25d	1	0.16mi
200 Avenue K SE Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$1,442	$1.32	5d	45	0.54mi
403 Avenue J SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	25d	1	0.75mi
513 Avenue J SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,350	$1.54	16d	1	0.83mi
2249 9th St SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,449	$0.95	21d	1	0.87mi
547 Snively Ave Eloise, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$600	$0.55	25d	1	0.87mi
919 S AVE SE Unit 1325030P Eloise, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,954	$1.72	5d	1	0.89mi
601 2nd St SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1072	$1,195	$1.11	5d	1	0.95mi
609 Avenue G SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,399	$1.60	25d	1	1.03mi
611 Avenue G SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,299	$1.48	5d	1	1.04mi
106 Avenue D SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,600	$1.74	5d	1	1.07mi
265 East St Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$2,250	$2.97	4d	41	1.07mi
332 Avenue D SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,800	$1.65	5d	1	1.08mi
200 Avenue C SW Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,950	$2.29	5d	12	1.15mi
310 Mayfair Pl SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,525	$1.23	25d	1	1.17mi
1304 15th St SW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,750	$1.94	25d	1	1.18mi
1300 S Lake Howard Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1464	$1,788	$1.22	12d	20	1.21mi
240 2nd St SW #201 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1241	$1,725	$1.39	25d	1	1.27mi
760 Avenue C SW Unit 104 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	3.0	1523	$1,750	$1.15	25d	1	1.32mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 101 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	25d	1	1.35mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 102 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	25d	1	1.35mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 203 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	5d	1	1.35mi
103 4th St SE Unit A Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,399	$1.38	5d	1	1.35mi
407 Avenue A SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,700	$1.51	25d	1	1.36mi
1860 Avenue Q SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	995	$1,199	$1.21	21d	1	1.48mi
2587 Sage Valley Way Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,300	$1.50	16d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $270 · $3,240/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $166,000
3. 2026-03-03
   listed $171,000 Active
4. 1997-10-09
   soldstatus $57,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $478 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,378 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$900/yr (+$75/mo · 188.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,299
• − Property taxes: −$478
• − Insurance: −$830
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,526
• − Management: −$1,526
• − HOA: −$3,240
• − Depreciation: −$4,829
• Taxable loss: −$2,651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$636
• After-tax cash flow: $713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+188.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $166,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $171,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $478 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.