Thrill Plan · Splendora, TX 77372

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Manufactured · 620 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -2.3

Listing remarks MLS

Huge open floor plan in this beautiful 3 bedroom 3 bath home!! This home boasts a spacious island kitchen and huge utility room. Includes STD: Delivery, set-up, state approved pad, skirting, AC and more!! Call today while it lasts.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Huge utility room
• Listed 619 days

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS ISLAND KITCHEN
• HUGE UTILITY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $99,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $214,252.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-501 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 845 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 620 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 620 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.02%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,252
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -53.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25688 John Wayne Rd	1.35mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+3%)	4mo	$264,900	$175	57
25774 John Wayne Rd	1.47mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-7%)	4mo	$241,990	$176	50
25641 John Wayne Rd	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+10%)	4mo	$283,900	$174	45
25696 John Wayne Rd	1.36mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+10%)	4mo	$279,900	$172	44
25709 John Wayne Rd	1.35mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+10%)	5mo	$276,900	$170	44
25712 John Wayne Rd	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+10%)	5mo	$276,900	$170	44
26399 Hill And Dale Ave	1.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,306 (-12%)	2mo	$255,000	$195	39
16124 Brettwood Ln	0.98mi	3/2.0	1,109 (-25%)	4mo	$179,990	$162	36
25701 John Wayne Rd	1.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (+22%)	0mo	$282,900	$158	35
15703 Ty Cobb Ct	1.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (+22%)	3mo	$257,000	$143	32
25633 John Wayne Rd	1.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (+22%)	4mo	$289,900	$162	32
25658 John Wayne Rd	1.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,727 (+17%)	4mo	$291,990	$169	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-66,598
• Equity at exit: $31,946

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-98,992
• Equity at exit: $18,525

Cash invested: $59,991 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active
• Median asking: $104,900 ($75/sqft)
• Median days on market: 869 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +93.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 845
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,240 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,124
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$268 /mo · $3,214/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,874

Max offer price $141,779

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-353	-5% $-427	+0% $-501	+5% $-575	+10% $-649
Rent	-10% $-599	-5% $-550	+0% $-501	+5% $-452	+10% $-403
Rate	-1.0pp $-393	-0.5pp $-446	base $-501	+0.5pp $-556	+1.0pp $-613

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,563
• Closing costs: $6,428
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16163 Pine Meadow Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,049	$0.96	1d	1	0.96mi
25982 Stillbrook Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,175	$1.08	130d	1	0.96mi
26036 Whitetail Way Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,049	$1.02	1d	1	0.97mi
26064 Whitetail Way Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,440	$1.40	63d	1	1.00mi
15645 All Star Dr Splendora, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,801	$1.02	134d	1	1.10mi
25625 Chestnut Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,666	$1.06	64d	1	1.10mi
25568 Dogwood Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,499	$0.88	3d	1	1.14mi
25582 Roy Rogers Rd Splendora, TX	4.0	2.5	1857	$1,501	$0.81	10d	1	1.29mi
25594 Roy Rogers Rd Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,601	$0.90	36d	1	1.30mi
24898 Lakewood Dr Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	104d	1	1.35mi
24898 Lakewood Dr Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,200	$0.89	10d	1	1.35mi
25721 John Wayne Rd Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,800	$1.28	128d	1	1.36mi
25687 Roy Rogers Ct Splendora, TX	4.0	3.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	145d	1	1.42mi
26471 Joy Village Dr Unit A Splendora, TX	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,295	$1.28	135d	1	1.42mi
26471 Joy Village Dr Splendora, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	163d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 620 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 619 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $99,900 Active 618 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $99,900 Active 617 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 616 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $99,900 Active 614 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $99,900 Active 613 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $99,900 Active 612 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $99,900 Active 611 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $99,900 Active 610 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $99,900 Active 609 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $99,900 Active 608 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $99,900 Active 607 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $99,900 Active 606 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $99,900 Active 605 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $99,900 Active 604 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $99,900 Active 603 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $99,900 Active 602 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $99,900 Active 601 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $99,900 Active 600 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $99,900 Active 599 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $99,900 Active 598 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $99,900 Active 597 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $99,900 Active 596 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $99,900 Active 595 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $99,900 Active 594 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $99,900 Active 593 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $99,900 Active 592 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $99,900 Active 591 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $99,900 Active 590 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 589 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 588 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $99,900 Active 587 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 586 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 585 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 584 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 583 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 582 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 581 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $99,900 Active 580 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $99,900 Active 578 DOM
42. 2026-09-26
    days on market $99,900 Active 577 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $99,900 Active 576 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $99,900 Active 575 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $99,900 Active 574 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $99,900 Active 573 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $99,900 Active 572 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $99,900 Active 571 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $99,900 Active 570 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $99,900 Active 569 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,001
• − Property taxes: −$3,214
• − Insurance: −$1,071
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$6,233
• Taxable loss: −$10,017
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,404
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,375–$22,125 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good exterior, interior, and appliances. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Modern window treatments can improve aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Piney Woods El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Splendora, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-02-26 Listed $99,900 Zillow