2477 Route 5 Unit D2 · Derby, VT 05829

$74,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured · 256 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2477 Route 5 Unit D2 — an affordable and move-in-ready 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in a quiet, well-maintained Derby park just minutes from shopping, schools, and beautiful Lake Memphremagog. This single-wide offers a bright and open floor plan with a spacious living room, eat-in kitchen, and a comfortable primary suite featuring its own bath. The home has been well cared for, featuring updated vinyl siding, an asphalt-shingled roof, and efficient forced-hot-air heat. Enjoy easy, single-level living with laundry hook-ups, newer flooring, and plenty of natural light throughout. Outside, you’ll appreciate a level, grassy yard with room for a garden, plus

Key facts

• Built 1978
• Listed 256 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit/lot number D2
• HOA & community: Mobile park approval in place

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (other)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electrical; Cable internet available; Cable service; On-site and LP/bottle gas service; Fuel service by Blanchard Oil
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Beige exterior color; Entry unit D2
• Construction: Built in 1978; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Fleetwood manufacture; Mobile serial PAFLM22A0236
• Exterior features: Located in a mobile home park (Derby Pond Mobile Home); Neighborhood setting; Private road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heater
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Living room; Neighborhood lot setting
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($995 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: Derby Elementary School (math 22% / reading 30%, grade F, #160 of 192 statewide, top 84%, 496 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 157 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (107 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Orleans County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.38%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $24,960
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2477 US Route 5 Lot D4	0.13mi	2/1.0	780 (0%)	18mo	$20,000	$26	75
2477 US Route 5 Unit E17	0.13mi	2/1.0	854 (+10%)	13mo	$27,000	$32	64
2477 Route 5 Unit D2	0.13mi	2/2.0	858 (+10%)	24mo	$89,000	$104	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $57,927
• Equity at exit: $67,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.49×
• Total profit: $157,152
• Equity at exit: $145,514

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05829

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $321	-5% $295	+0% $269	+5% $243	+10% $217
Rent	-10% $190	-5% $229	+0% $269	+5% $308	+10% $347
Rate	-1.0pp $307	-0.5pp $288	base $269	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $74,900 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 254 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 253 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 252 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 251 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 250 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,900 Active 248 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 245 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 244 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 243 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 242 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 239 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 238 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 237 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 236 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    price $74,900
18. 2026-02-02
    price $79,900
19. 2026-01-14
    price $84,900
20. 2025-11-22
    price $89,900
21. 2025-11-06
    price $94,900
22. 2025-10-07
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$956
• − Management: −$956
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $2,162
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$519
• After-tax cash flow: $2,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready manufactured home offers a good condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed. Upgrading the exterior siding, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom fixtures, along with improving the landscaping, can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Slight wear and tear, but not in need of immediate replacement.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Some wear and tear, but still functional.
• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration, but not severe enough to require immediate replacement.
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown areas and lack of decorative elements, which could be improved with some landscaping work.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve the curb appeal and value of the home.
• Resale Replace worn-out kitchen cabinets — Fresh, updated cabinets can enhance the kitchen's functionality and aesthetic appeal.
• Resale Replace worn-out bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can improve the bathroom's functionality and aesthetic appeal.
• Both Landscaping — Improved landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value both for resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Slight wear and tear, but not in need of immediate replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Some wear and tear, but still functional.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Some discoloration, but not severe enough to require immediate replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown areas and lack of decorative elements, which could be improved with some landscaping work.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve the curb appeal and value of the home. ↑
• Resale Replace worn-out kitchen cabinets — Fresh, updated cabinets can enhance the kitchen's functionality and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Resale Replace worn-out bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can improve the bathroom's functionality and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improved landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value both for resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Derby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,600

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,222 people
• By 2030: 25,399 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 23,350 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 21,232 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 16,543 · -36.9%
• By 2100: 11,566 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% German 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.4% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: 27.5pp · 2024: -1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.6 2020: D+4.5 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+24.2 2008: D+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 264.8768
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-24.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $74,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $79,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $84,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $89,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $94,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $99,000 PrimeMLS