26398 Cedar Sedge Dr · Magnolia, TX 77355

$289,710

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,218 sqft · Land · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 4,613 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

READY NOW! This stunning Fentress plan by Centex Homes is a 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home designed for comfort and entertainment! Step into a 2-story foyer that leads to an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen is a chef’s dream with a working island, gas cooking, granite countertops, grey soft-close cabinets and drawers, and abundant storage. The spacious primary suite features a large walk-in closet, a spa shower, and an extended vanity. Upstairs, a large game room and three additional bedrooms offer space for everyone. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio overlooking a fully fenced yard with full sod, sprinkler system, and gutters.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Gas cooking
• Working island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WORKING ISLAND
• GAS COOKING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GREY SOFT-CLOSE CABINETS
• ABUNDANT STORAGE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-485/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (23.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Decker Prairie El (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 40% FRL); Grand Lakes J H (969 students, 29% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tomball ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 556 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $221,069 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-49,620
• Equity at exit: $43,197

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-46,926
• Equity at exit: $25,049

Cash invested: $81,119 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 556
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,519
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,115/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,262

Max offer price $282,566

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $42	+0% $-40	+5% $-122	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-215	-5% $-128	+0% $-40	+5% $47	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $33	base $-40	+0.5pp $-116	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,428
• Closing costs: $8,691
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   price $289,710
3. 2026-02-17
   listed $304,700 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,302 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,187/yr (+$349/mo · 375.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,228
• − Property taxes: −$1,115
• − Insurance: −$1,449
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,428
• Taxable loss: −$5,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,340
• After-tax cash flow: $855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $289,710 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $304,700 HARMLS