16862 Churchill Rd · Copenhagen, NY 13601

$129,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1997 4.49 ac lot ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living on nearly 5 acres. Outside you will find a large deck which is partially covered for those hot summer days. Inside is a cozy, well maintained home which features 2 full baths and 3 bedrooms. with an additional bonus room/bedroom in the basement. There is plenty of storage in the full basement and the two sheds on the property. Enjoy the large yard for kids, pets or ATVs. This home is ready for you and your family- pack your bags! An easy commute to Fort Drum and Watertown. Call us today for your personal tour!

Key facts

• Large deck
• Large yard
• Full basement

Tags

• LARGE DECK
• FULL BASEMENT
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• LARGE YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block foundation; Existing construction (original/established structure)
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel driveway; Agricultural and irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Oil forced-air heating
• Interior features: Dining area; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Full walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#914 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Copenhagen Central School District (rural): math 64% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #197 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.09%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $19,993
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $102,825
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,883 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,280/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,270

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $129,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $129,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   listed $129,000 Active
7. 2018-08-10
   soldstatus $163,000
8. 2018-08-09
   soldstatus $163,000 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Country living on nearly 5 acres. Outside you will find a large deck which is partially covered for those hot summer days. Inside is a cozy, well maintained home which features 2 full baths and 3 bedrooms. with an additional bonus room/bedroom in the basement. There is plenty of storage in the full basement and the two sheds on the property. Enjoy the large yard for kids, pets or ATVs. This home is ready for you and your family- pack your bags! An easy commute to Fort Drum and Watertown. Call us today for your personal tour!

9. 2018-05-10
   listed $164,900 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Country living on nearly 5 acres. Outside you will find a large deck which is partially covered for those hot summer days. Inside is a cozy, well maintained home which features 2 full baths and 3 bedrooms. with an additional bonus room/bedroom in the basement. There is plenty of storage in the full basement and the two sheds on the property. Enjoy the large yard for kids, pets or ATVs. This home is ready for you and your family- pack your bags! An easy commute to Fort Drum and Watertown. Call us today for your personal tour!

10. 2017-12-15
    historical
11. 2017-06-13
    listed $188,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,280 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,280 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$3,280
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,808
• − Management: −$1,808
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $4,081
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$979
• After-tax cash flow: $4,832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Copenhagen Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,499
• Composite: 53.91/100
• National rank: #1403
• State rank: #197 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copenhagen

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #17891

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-31.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $129,000 CNYIS
• 2018-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $163,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-09 Sold (MLS) $163,000 CNYIS
• 2018-05-10 Listed $164,900 CNYIS
• 2017-12-15 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2017-06-13 Listed $188,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,280 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.