5118 Harford Rd · Baltimore, MD 21214

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Townhouse public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1929 1,690 sqft lot $134/sqft · 14% below area Est $233k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * * AS IS * * * * Property need work. Investors Only. Cash or private lender offer only.

Key facts

• Built 1929
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on upper level, 1 on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Full basement with walkout stairs

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.72%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,839
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -14.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5104 Harford Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,496 (0%)	6mo	$175,000	$117	90
5214 Harford Rd Unit N/A	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,711 (+14%)	4mo	$127,000	$74	68
3802 Echodale Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,515 (+1%)	3mo	$242,500	$160	62
5033 Plymouth Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,564 (+4%)	1mo	$225,000	$144	61
3602 Ailsa Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,600 (+7%)	10mo	$179,000	$112	53
4602 Arabia Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,638 (+10%)	9mo	$232,000	$142	50
3612 Evergreen Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-9%)	1mo	$220,000	$161	48
4604 Arabia Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-13%)	3mo	$228,000	$176	46
2402 Albion Ave	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,664 (+11%)	9mo	$220,000	$132	44
4653 Harcourt Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,710 (+14%)	6mo	$232,000	$136	42
3723 Frankford Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,634 (+9%)	8mo	$229,900	$141	37
3704 Frankford Ave	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,344 (-10%)	10mo	$295,000	$219	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-18,333
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,217
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21214

• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,944/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,743

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $333	-5% $277	+0% $220	+5% $164	+10% $107
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $140	+0% $220	+5% $300	+10% $380
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $271	base $220	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2900 Ailsa Ave Apt 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	5d	1	0.13mi
2911 Shirey Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,500	$1.49	21d	1	0.22mi
2807 Shirey Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1190	$2,500	$2.10	15d	1	0.24mi
2805 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	44d	1	0.34mi
3309 Southern Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	13d	1	0.45mi
3514 Ailsa Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,200	$1.22	44d	1	0.51mi
3721 Frankford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,050	$1.28	44d	1	0.70mi
3607 Bayonne Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	24d	1	0.73mi
3802 Biddison Ln Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1443	$2,024	$1.40	12d	1	0.74mi
2077 Woodbourne Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	830	$1,419	$1.71	2d	5	0.75mi
2804 Christopher Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1280	$2,200	$1.72	24d	1	0.79mi
2028 Hillenwood Rd Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,100	$1.15	22d	1	0.82mi
5781 Edgepark Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,975	$1.26	17d	1	0.86mi
5424 Belle Vista Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	932	$1,300	$1.39	44d	1	0.87mi
6212 Laurelton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	960	$1,325	$1.38	44d	1	0.89mi
1806 Ramblewood Rd Apt A Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	903	$1,847	$2.05	44d	1	0.93mi
2106 Cloville Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,700	$1.57	44d	1	0.93mi
1908 E Belvedere Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1425	$1,950	$1.37	21d	1	0.95mi
4007 Biddison Ln Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,279	$1.28	18d	1	0.95mi
4023 Belwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,995	$1.85	44d	1	0.97mi
1804 Winford Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1600	$2,100	$1.31	24d	1	0.98mi
1900 Ramblewood Rd Apt A Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	903	$1,847	$2.05	44d	1	1.01mi
4104 Parkwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1224	$2,800	$2.29	24d	1	1.03mi
1726 E Belvedere Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,895	$1.66	22d	1	1.04mi
5632 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$2,100	$1.67	24d	1	1.09mi
6612 Birchwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1122	$2,300	$2.05	21d	1	1.14mi
6502 McClean Blvd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,537	$1.66	44d	1	1.19mi
1646 Wadsworth Way Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1520	$2,100	$1.38	11d	1	1.24mi
6502 McClean Blvd Unit 2211-B3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,495	$1.62	22d	1	1.25mi
4718 Blue Ridge Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1744	$2,400	$1.38	12d	1	1.27mi
4308 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1110	$1,416	$1.28	24d	1	1.28mi
4111 Century Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$2,500	$1.75	44d	1	1.28mi
4024 Eierman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,825	$1.61	44d	1	1.30mi
1545 E Cold Spring Ln Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,000	$1.61	44d	1	1.35mi
3010 Woodring Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	44d	1	1.35mi
6410 Walther Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$1,995	$1.67	44d	7	1.37mi
3412 Fleetwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1620	$2,195	$1.35	44d	1	1.39mi
4400 Asbury Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,995	$1.57	5d	1	1.40mi
4517 Woodlea Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1326	$1,900	$1.43	3d	1	1.41mi
3158 Woodring Ave Parkville, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,950	$1.30	24d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $199,900 Active 588-char remark
16. 2025-10-15
    historical
17. 2025-09-07
    price $239,000
18. 2025-08-18
    listed $247,000 Active
19. 2023-02-22
    soldstatus $290,000
20. 2019-01-10
    soldstatus $65,000
21. 2018-10-28
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    * * * * AS IS * * * * Property need work. Investors Only. Cash or private lender offer only.

22. 2018-06-30
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    * * * * AS IS * * * * Property need work. Investors Only. Cash or private lender offer only.

23. 2018-06-24
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    * * * * AS IS * * * * Property need work. Investors Only. Cash or private lender offer only.

24. 2018-06-17
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    * * * * AS IS * * * * Property need work. Investors Only. Cash or private lender offer only.

25. 2018-06-17
    listed $49,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    * * * * AS IS * * * * Property need work. Investors Only. Cash or private lender offer only.

26. 2008-07-11
    historical
27. 2007-09-06
    listed
28. 2001-12-11
    soldstatus $70,000
29. 2001-12-06
    soldstatus $70,000
30. 2001-10-20
    historical
31. 2001-07-06
    listed $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,944 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,944 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,944
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$576
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$138
• After-tax cash flow: $2,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 21,092
• Household income: $86,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 33% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.52%
• Current HPI: 310.5637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+185.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-07 Price Changed $239,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $247,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-28 Sold (MLS) $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-24 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-17 Listed $49,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-07-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-09-06 Listed — MRIS
• 2001-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-06 Sold (MLS) $70,000 MRIS
• 2001-10-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-07-06 Listed $70,000 MRIS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,944 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.