90 Jomar Ln · Shokan, NY 12461

$599,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 2004 3.20 ac lot $241/sqft · 60% below area Est $936k · 36% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 90 Jomar Lane, a spacious, move-in-ready ranch thoughtfully laid out for comfortable living. An additional 920 sq ft of living space is located in the fully finished basement and is not included in the 1,568 sq ft of the main level. This home features 3 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, and a large walk-up attic offering excellent storage or future potential. The primary bedroom opens to a private hot tub, perfect for relaxing at the end of the day. Enjoy seasonal mountain views of Mombacus Mountain. There is a pool deck already built for a 15x24 pool with underground electric in place for the pump. The lower-level driveway includes two sheds plus a covered storage tent with pallet and plywood flooring, ideal for lawn equipment and seasonal storage. Additional highlights include a seasonal runoff stream, three-zone heating (two zones upstairs, one in the basement), and ample outdoor space to enjoy nature and privacy.

Key facts

• Large walk-up attic
• Pool deck
• Three-zone heating

Tags

• FULLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• LARGE WALK-UP ATTIC
• PRIVATE HOT TUB
• SEASONAL MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• POOL DECK
• THREE-ZONE HEATING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (44.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (48.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (48.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 1.8% in Shokan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#888 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $600k implies a 2508% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $309,363 (48.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.70%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 16.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $936,273
• List price: $599,900
• Delta: -35.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Tetta Ln	0.72mi	3/3.0	2,400 (-4%)	16mo	$1,090,000	$454	47
24 Tetta Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,414 (-3%)	21mo	$963,852	$399	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-62,533
• Equity at exit: $227,872

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-37,376
• Equity at exit: $321,550

Cash invested: $167,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12461

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 16.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$545 /mo · $6,545/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-1,497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,989

Max offer price $335,394

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,158	-5% $-1,328	+0% $-1,497	+5% $-1,667	+10% $-1,837
Rent	-10% $-1,742	-5% $-1,620	+0% $-1,497	+5% $-1,375	+10% $-1,253
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,195	-0.5pp $-1,345	base $-1,497	+0.5pp $-1,653	+1.0pp $-1,811

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,975
• Closing costs: $17,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $599,900 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $599,900 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,900 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,900 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,900 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,900 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $599,900 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $599,900 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,900 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $599,900 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $599,900 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $599,900 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $599,900 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,900 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $599,900 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $599,900 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-02-11
    listed $599,900 Active 938-char remark

    Show marketing remark (938 chars)

    Welcome to 90 Jomar Lane, a spacious, move-in-ready ranch thoughtfully laid out for comfortable living. An additional 920 sq ft of living space is located in the fully finished basement and is not included in the 1,568 sq ft of the main level. This home features 3 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, and a large walk-up attic offering excellent storage or future potential. The primary bedroom opens to a private hot tub, perfect for relaxing at the end of the day. Enjoy seasonal mountain views of Mombacus Mountain. There is a pool deck already built for a 15x24 pool with underground electric in place for the pump. The lower-level driveway includes two sheds plus a covered storage tent with pallet and plywood flooring, ideal for lawn equipment and seasonal storage. Additional highlights include a seasonal runoff stream, three-zone heating (two zones upstairs, one in the basement), and ample outdoor space to enjoy nature and privacy.

18. 2003-12-29
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,545 · $545/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,341 · $695/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,797/yr (+$150/mo · 27.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,604
• − Property taxes: −$6,545
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,970
• − Management: −$2,970
• − Depreciation: −$17,452
• Taxable loss: −$29,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,060
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onteora Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621840
• Math proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $56,997
• Composite: 52.17/100
• National rank: #3482
• State rank: #288 of 755 in NY

Livability — Shokan

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #888
• US rank: #17222

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,359
• Population (ZIP): 1,426

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 8% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.73%
• Current HPI: 346.6673
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2508.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $599,900 HVCRMLS
• 2003-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,545 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.