269 E Grady Ave · Lyons, GA 30436

$39,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1956 0.25 ac lot Est $43k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors, flippers, or DIY dreamers! This property is packed with potential and ready for a new vision!Whether you're looking to renovate and resell, create a rental property, or customize your own home, this fixer upper offers a great opportunity to build equity. Check out this home on a corner lot within the city limits.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1956

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); Built in 1956; Property described as a fixer
• Construction: Block construction; Metal roof; Total building area listed as 1596 (public records)
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Flooring described as 'Other'
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: One-level layout; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry described as 'Other'

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#330 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Toombs County (rural): math 36% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Toombs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Toombs County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 109.08%
• DSCR: 5.85
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $43,092
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
269 E Grady Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,596 (0%)	1mo	$32,000	$20	100
148 148 East Gordon	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (+8%)	11mo	$46,000	$27	54
175 Hilton Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,378 (-14%)	18mo	$146,000	$106	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.74×
• Total profit: $86,652
• Equity at exit: $36,034

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.24×
• Total profit: $204,241
• Equity at exit: $77,709

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30436

• Home prices YoY: 9.5%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $661/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $1,018

Break-even live

Break-even rent $356

Max offer price $39,999

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $39,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $661 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $661 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$661
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $12,316
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,956
• After-tax cash flow: $9,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toombs County
• NCES district ID: 1305040
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,288
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6922
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lyons

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #17443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyons, GA
• Population (ZIP): 11,547

Population outlook (Toombs County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,784 people
• By 2030: 26,312 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 25,219 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,733 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 19,107 · -28.7%
• By 2100: 12,922 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Toombs

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.7) · D 24.5% · R 75.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.1pp · 2024: -50.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.7 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+46.9 2012: R+40.5 2008: R+38.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.28%
• Current HPI: 257.7921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $39,999 GAMLS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $661 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.