471 Division Ave · Hicksville, NY 11801

$719,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1952 7,540 sqft lot $449/sqft · 14% below area Est $832k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This expanded Levitt Ranch features 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full baths, Eat in Kitchen, LR w/fireplace, 1st floor bedrooms. The home offers a functional layout perfect for those who love to entertain. Highlights include: • Wall AC units • In-ground sprinklers • Private backyard ideal for gatherings • Above ground oil tank, Home is located in the Hicksville school district and is convenient to LIRR, Shops and highways.

Key facts

• Wall ac units
• Convenient to lirr
• Private backyard

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• WALL AC UNITS
• IN-GROUND SPRINKLERS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• HICKSVILLE SCHOOL DISTRICT
• CONVENIENT TO LIRR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $719k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-744 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $587k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $471k (34.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $471k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Hicksville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#31 in NY, #526 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Hicksville Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #200 of 590 in NY (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fork Lane School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 294 students, 50% FRL); Hicksville Middle School (math 39% / reading 61%, grade C, #261 of 729 statewide, top 36%, 1,185 students, 52% FRL); Hicksville High School (math 76% / reading 77%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 1,852 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 24% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($146k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($697k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $471,488 (34.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $831,875
• List price: $719,000
• Delta: -13.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Pewter Ln	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	2mo	$698,888	$437	78
7 Woodpecker Ln	0.22mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (+4%)	0mo	$772,500	$464	78
29 Walnut Ln	0.30mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (+2%)	4mo	$705,000	$430	74
29 Fox Ct	0.37mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,589 (-1%)	1mo	$946,000	$595	72
21 Piper Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,675 (+5%)	2mo	$785,000	$469	70
111 Blacksmith Rd E	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,650 (+3%)	1mo	$800,000	$485	70
143 Blacksmith Rd E	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,566 (-2%)	3mo	$520,000	$332	65
54 Morning Glory Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,659 (+4%)	2mo	$795,000	$479	62
24 Cloister Ln	0.59mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,538 (-4%)	0mo	$675,888	$439	61
10 Winding Rd	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,400 (-12%)	5mo	$770,000	$550	48
15 Bond Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,794 (+12%)	3mo	$795,000	$443	46
64 Dean St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-15%)	2mo	$759,000	$558	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-162,349
• Equity at exit: $107,205

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-195,900
• Equity at exit: $62,166

Cash invested: $201,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11801

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,715 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,771
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,789/yr
• Insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$990
• Net cashflow: $-744

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,657

Max offer price $587,491

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-337	-5% $-541	+0% $-744	+5% $-948	+10% $-1,151
Rent	-10% $-1,117	-5% $-931	+0% $-744	+5% $-558	+10% $-372
Rate	-1.0pp $-382	-0.5pp $-562	base $-744	+0.5pp $-931	+1.0pp $-1,120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $179,750
• Closing costs: $21,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
68 Summer Ln Hicksville, NY	4.0	1.5	1236	$4,700	$3.80	8d	1	0.29mi
68 Summer Ln Hicksville, NY	4.0	1.5	1236	$4,700	$3.80	0d	1	0.29mi
68 Summer Ln Hicksville, NY	4.0	1.5	1236	$4,750	$3.84	22d	1	0.29mi
37 Winter Ln Hicksville, NY	4.0	2.0	1340	$4,500	$3.36	46d	1	0.37mi
5 Glenbrook Rd Hicksville, NY	4.0	2.5	1546	$5,300	$3.43	0d	1	0.81mi
116 West Ave Hicksville, NY	4.0	2.5	1337	$4,700	$3.52	0d	1	0.88mi
33 Clarissa Dr Hicksville, NY	4.0	2.0	1098	$4,500	$4.10	21d	1	1.06mi
48 Link Ln Hicksville, NY	4.0	2.0	1900	$4,900	$2.58	0d	1	1.10mi
11 Bluespruce Rd Levittown, NY	5.0	2.0	1646	$4,500	$2.73	45d	1	1.20mi
64 Arrow Ln Hicksville, NY	4.0	2.0	1422	$4,950	$3.48	0d	1	1.22mi
16 Roosevelt Ave #14 Hicksville, NY	3.0	1.5	1400	$5,500	$3.93	0d	1	1.25mi
8 Crabtree Ln Levittown, NY	4.0	2.0	1050	$4,750	$4.52	0d	1	1.35mi
55 Acre Ln Hicksville, NY	4.0	2.0	1114	$4,595	$4.12	0d	1	1.36mi
55 Acre Ln Hicksville, NY	4.0	2.0	1114	$4,595	$4.12	13d	1	1.36mi
3685 Prairie Path Bethpage, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$4,500	$3.46	45d	1	1.37mi
8 Farmedge Rd Bethpage, NY	4.0	2.0	1269	$4,500	$3.55	0d	1	1.44mi
136 Duffy Ave Hicksville, NY	5.0	2.0	2100	$4,400	$2.10	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-08
   listed $719,000 Active 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   This expanded Levitt Ranch features 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full baths, Eat in Kitchen, LR w/fireplace, 1st floor bedrooms. The home offers a functional layout perfect for those who love to entertain. Highlights include: • Wall AC units • In-ground sprinklers • Private backyard ideal for gatherings • Above ground oil tank, Home is located in the Hicksville school district and is convenient to LIRR, Shops and highways.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,789 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,470 · $706/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,681/yr (+$307/mo · 76.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,275
• − Property taxes: −$4,789
• − Insurance: −$3,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,526
• − Management: −$4,526
• − Depreciation: −$20,916
• Taxable loss: −$22,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,292
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hicksville Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3614340
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $91,592
• Composite: 53.79/100
• National rank: #1417
• State rank: #200 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hicksville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hicksville, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 41,585
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 41,585
• Household income: $145,788
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 398.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Asian 32% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Other Indo-European 24% Spanish 14% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -773.32%
• Current HPI: 321.0586
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $719,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,789 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.