407 Johnson St · McGregor, TX 76657

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1950 5,998 sqft lot $186/sqft · 8% below area Est $166k · 10% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully remodeled 2 bedroom 1 bath home offering modern updates and move in ready convenience. This charming home features an open concept layout, fresh neutral paint, wood look flooring throughout, and updated lighting. The kitchen includes stylish cabinetry, sleek countertops, black appliances, open shelving, and a functional flow into the living area. The bathroom has been beautifully updated with a tub and shower combo, modern vanity, and updated fixtures. Enjoy the spacious covered front porch, mature shade trees, and clean curb appeal. A great option for a first time buyer, downsizing, or investment property.

Key facts

• Stylish cabinetry
• Black appliances
• Sleek countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STYLISH CABINETRY
• SLEEK COUNTERTOPS
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• OPEN SHELVING
• UPDATED FIXTURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, VA Loan; Treat as clear loan type
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway
• Utilities: City sewer; City water; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Attached: Yes; Built in 1950; One story
• Construction: Metal roof; Year built: 1950
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Lot under 0.5 acre (approx. 0.1377 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Level 1) — approximately 14 x 9
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Open floorplan; One-level layout; Room count: 1; Dining area
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.4% in McGregor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#310 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, commute D+.
• Mcgregor ISD (town): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #429 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcgregor El (math 33% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 454 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,900 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,035
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -10.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Johnson St	0.00mi	2/1.0	817 (+2%)	0mo	$149,000	$182	96
306 Pullen St	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	896 (+12%)	7mo	$131,900	$147	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-18,634
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,174
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76657

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,531/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,229

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $171	-5% $129	+0% $87	+5% $45	+10% $2
Rent	-10% $-19	-5% $34	+0% $87	+5% $140	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $125	base $87	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
651 E McGregor Dr McGregor, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	14d	3	0.35mi
718 S Main St Unit 718 McGregor, TX	2.0	1.0	1021	$1,375	$1.35	44d	1	0.74mi
117 Bowie St McGregor, TX	3.0	1.0	905	$1,695	$1.87	14d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 620-char remark
2. 2026-05-08
   historical Active Option Contract 620-char remark
3. 2026-05-05
   price $149,000 620-char remark
4. 2026-04-30
   listed $159,000 Active 620-char remark
5. 2026-04-01
   soldstatus
6. 2005-12-15
   soldstatus
7. 2002-09-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,531 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,727 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,196/yr (+$100/mo · 78.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,531
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,285
• − Management: −$1,285
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$350
• After-tax cash flow: $1,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcgregor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829820
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,579
• Composite: 33.74/100
• National rank: #5373
• State rank: #429 of 826 in TX

Livability — McGregor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #6968

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McGregor, TX
• City population: 12,770
• Population (ZIP): 12,770

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.14%
• Current HPI: 222.0905
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $149,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,531 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.