3165 Ravines Rd #3621 · Middleburg, FL 32068

$130,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 420 sqft · Condo public records · 179 Days on market

Built 1984 $262/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEST BUY IN MIDDLEBURG AND THE PRICE HAS BEEN REDUCED!!! END UNIT CONDO WITH A PRIVATE BALCONY OVERLOOKING THE GRAND WILDLIFE THAT THE RESERVES HAS TO OFFER. WELL KEPT EFFICIENCY UNIT THAT HAS TWO MURPHY BEDS, STOVE, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND EAT IN KITCHEN WITH TABLE AND CHAIRS. COME TO YOUR PRIVATE RESERVE AND KICK BACK AND RELAX. LOCATED IN A 24/7 GUARD GATED COMMUNITY. THIS UNIT IS A MUST SEE. GREAT FOR A WINTER GETAWAY OR FOR VA HOSPITAL PATIENT LAYOVERS. SCHEDULE A SHOWING TODAY!!!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Newer lvp floor
• $262 HOA

Tags

• NEWER LVP FLOOR
• GATED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by The CAM Team; Monthly association fee of $206.13 (includes grounds maintenance and security); Additional monthly fee of $56

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Security: Gated community with guard
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Condominium; Two levels; Entry on 2nd level; Property is attached
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof; 2-story building
• Exterior features: Balcony; Covered patio/deck/rear porch; Wooded lot; County road frontage; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (entry on 2nd level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, hot water); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer stacked; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-779/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $130k implies a 410% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-24,637
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-24,451
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $767/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$262
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,344

Max offer price $118,527

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-28	+0% $-65	+5% $-102	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-115	+0% $-65	+5% $-15	+10% $35
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-32	base $-65	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $262 · $3,144/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $130,000 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-03-07
   price $130,000
6. 2025-12-06
   listed $140,000 Active
7. 2016-05-17
   soldstatus $25,500
8. 2016-05-12
   soldstatus $25,500 Sold 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   BEST BUY IN MIDDLEBURG AND THE PRICE HAS BEEN REDUCED!!! END UNIT CONDO WITH A PRIVATE BALCONY OVERLOOKING THE GRAND WILDLIFE THAT THE RESERVES HAS TO OFFER. WELL KEPT EFFICIENCY UNIT THAT HAS TWO MURPHY BEDS, STOVE, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND EAT IN KITCHEN WITH TABLE AND CHAIRS. COME TO YOUR PRIVATE RESERVE AND KICK BACK AND RELAX. LOCATED IN A 24/7 GUARD GATED COMMUNITY. THIS UNIT IS A MUST SEE. GREAT FOR A WINTER GETAWAY OR FOR VA HOSPITAL PATIENT LAYOVERS. SCHEDULE A SHOWING TODAY!!!

9. 2016-04-19
   status Pending 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   BEST BUY IN MIDDLEBURG AND THE PRICE HAS BEEN REDUCED!!! END UNIT CONDO WITH A PRIVATE BALCONY OVERLOOKING THE GRAND WILDLIFE THAT THE RESERVES HAS TO OFFER. WELL KEPT EFFICIENCY UNIT THAT HAS TWO MURPHY BEDS, STOVE, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND EAT IN KITCHEN WITH TABLE AND CHAIRS. COME TO YOUR PRIVATE RESERVE AND KICK BACK AND RELAX. LOCATED IN A 24/7 GUARD GATED COMMUNITY. THIS UNIT IS A MUST SEE. GREAT FOR A WINTER GETAWAY OR FOR VA HOSPITAL PATIENT LAYOVERS. SCHEDULE A SHOWING TODAY!!!

10. 2016-02-21
    status Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    BEST BUY IN MIDDLEBURG AND THE PRICE HAS BEEN REDUCED!!! END UNIT CONDO WITH A PRIVATE BALCONY OVERLOOKING THE GRAND WILDLIFE THAT THE RESERVES HAS TO OFFER. WELL KEPT EFFICIENCY UNIT THAT HAS TWO MURPHY BEDS, STOVE, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND EAT IN KITCHEN WITH TABLE AND CHAIRS. COME TO YOUR PRIVATE RESERVE AND KICK BACK AND RELAX. LOCATED IN A 24/7 GUARD GATED COMMUNITY. THIS UNIT IS A MUST SEE. GREAT FOR A WINTER GETAWAY OR FOR VA HOSPITAL PATIENT LAYOVERS. SCHEDULE A SHOWING TODAY!!!

11. 2016-02-20
    historical 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    BEST BUY IN MIDDLEBURG AND THE PRICE HAS BEEN REDUCED!!! END UNIT CONDO WITH A PRIVATE BALCONY OVERLOOKING THE GRAND WILDLIFE THAT THE RESERVES HAS TO OFFER. WELL KEPT EFFICIENCY UNIT THAT HAS TWO MURPHY BEDS, STOVE, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND EAT IN KITCHEN WITH TABLE AND CHAIRS. COME TO YOUR PRIVATE RESERVE AND KICK BACK AND RELAX. LOCATED IN A 24/7 GUARD GATED COMMUNITY. THIS UNIT IS A MUST SEE. GREAT FOR A WINTER GETAWAY OR FOR VA HOSPITAL PATIENT LAYOVERS. SCHEDULE A SHOWING TODAY!!!

12. 2015-11-21
    price $29,900 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    BEST BUY IN MIDDLEBURG AND THE PRICE HAS BEEN REDUCED!!! END UNIT CONDO WITH A PRIVATE BALCONY OVERLOOKING THE GRAND WILDLIFE THAT THE RESERVES HAS TO OFFER. WELL KEPT EFFICIENCY UNIT THAT HAS TWO MURPHY BEDS, STOVE, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND EAT IN KITCHEN WITH TABLE AND CHAIRS. COME TO YOUR PRIVATE RESERVE AND KICK BACK AND RELAX. LOCATED IN A 24/7 GUARD GATED COMMUNITY. THIS UNIT IS A MUST SEE. GREAT FOR A WINTER GETAWAY OR FOR VA HOSPITAL PATIENT LAYOVERS. SCHEDULE A SHOWING TODAY!!!

13. 2015-11-21
    listed $32,900 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    BEST BUY IN MIDDLEBURG AND THE PRICE HAS BEEN REDUCED!!! END UNIT CONDO WITH A PRIVATE BALCONY OVERLOOKING THE GRAND WILDLIFE THAT THE RESERVES HAS TO OFFER. WELL KEPT EFFICIENCY UNIT THAT HAS TWO MURPHY BEDS, STOVE, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND EAT IN KITCHEN WITH TABLE AND CHAIRS. COME TO YOUR PRIVATE RESERVE AND KICK BACK AND RELAX. LOCATED IN A 24/7 GUARD GATED COMMUNITY. THIS UNIT IS A MUST SEE. GREAT FOR A WINTER GETAWAY OR FOR VA HOSPITAL PATIENT LAYOVERS. SCHEDULE A SHOWING TODAY!!!

14. 2015-11-20
    historical 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    END UNIT WITH A PRIVATE BALCONY OVERLOOKING THE GRAND WILDLIFE THAT THE RESERVES HAS TO OFFER. WELL KEPT EFFICIENCY UNIT THAT HAS TWO MURPHY BEDS, STOVE, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND KITCHEN TABLE AND CHAIRS. COME TO YOUR PRIVATE RESERVE AND KICK BACK AND RELAX. BATH HAS A JACUZZI TUB AND SHOWER COMBO TO UNWIND AFTER A STRESSFUL DAY. LOCATED IN A 24/7 GUARD GATED COMMUNITY. THIS UNIT IS A MUST SEE. SCHEDULE A SHOWING TODAY!!!

15. 2015-05-20
    listed $39,900 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    END UNIT WITH A PRIVATE BALCONY OVERLOOKING THE GRAND WILDLIFE THAT THE RESERVES HAS TO OFFER. WELL KEPT EFFICIENCY UNIT THAT HAS TWO MURPHY BEDS, STOVE, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND KITCHEN TABLE AND CHAIRS. COME TO YOUR PRIVATE RESERVE AND KICK BACK AND RELAX. BATH HAS A JACUZZI TUB AND SHOWER COMBO TO UNWIND AFTER A STRESSFUL DAY. LOCATED IN A 24/7 GUARD GATED COMMUNITY. THIS UNIT IS A MUST SEE. SCHEDULE A SHOWING TODAY!!!

16. 2015-05-20
    price $35,000 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    END UNIT WITH A PRIVATE BALCONY OVERLOOKING THE GRAND WILDLIFE THAT THE RESERVES HAS TO OFFER. WELL KEPT EFFICIENCY UNIT THAT HAS TWO MURPHY BEDS, STOVE, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND KITCHEN TABLE AND CHAIRS. COME TO YOUR PRIVATE RESERVE AND KICK BACK AND RELAX. BATH HAS A JACUZZI TUB AND SHOWER COMBO TO UNWIND AFTER A STRESSFUL DAY. LOCATED IN A 24/7 GUARD GATED COMMUNITY. THIS UNIT IS A MUST SEE. SCHEDULE A SHOWING TODAY!!!

17. 2015-05-20
    price $33,000 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    END UNIT WITH A PRIVATE BALCONY OVERLOOKING THE GRAND WILDLIFE THAT THE RESERVES HAS TO OFFER. WELL KEPT EFFICIENCY UNIT THAT HAS TWO MURPHY BEDS, STOVE, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE AND KITCHEN TABLE AND CHAIRS. COME TO YOUR PRIVATE RESERVE AND KICK BACK AND RELAX. BATH HAS A JACUZZI TUB AND SHOWER COMBO TO UNWIND AFTER A STRESSFUL DAY. LOCATED IN A 24/7 GUARD GATED COMMUNITY. THIS UNIT IS A MUST SEE. SCHEDULE A SHOWING TODAY!!!

18. 2013-08-09
    soldstatus $26,000
19. 2013-08-06
    soldstatus $26,000
20. 2012-04-30
    listed $27,500
21. 2008-05-24
    historical
22. 2007-05-24
    listed $67,500
23. 2005-10-17
    soldstatus $45,100
24. 2001-02-14
    soldstatus $27,500
25. 1985-05-01
    soldstatus $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $767 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$312/yr (+$26/mo · 40.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$767
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,211
• − Management: −$1,211
• − HOA: −$3,144
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,905
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$697
• After-tax cash flow: $-82/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+108.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $130,000 realMLS
• 2025-12-06 Listed $140,000 realMLS
• 2016-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records
• 2016-05-12 Sold (MLS) $25,500 realMLS
• 2016-04-19 Pending — realMLS
• 2016-02-21 Relisted — realMLS
• 2016-02-20 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2015-11-21 Price Changed $29,900 realMLS
• 2015-11-21 Listed $32,900 realMLS
• 2015-11-20 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2015-05-20 Listed $39,900 realMLS
• 2015-05-20 Price Changed $33,000 realMLS
• 2015-05-20 Price Changed $35,000 realMLS
• 2013-08-09 Sold (MLS) $26,000 realMLS
• 2013-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 2012-04-30 Listed $27,500 realMLS
• 2008-05-24 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2007-05-24 Listed $67,500 realMLS
• 2005-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $45,100 Public Records
• 2001-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 1985-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $767 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.