27325 Mistflower Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33544

$5,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,673 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2005 7,841 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Foreclosure Auction Ends June 15, 2026 at 11:00 AM EST. Explore this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence set in a peaceful and well-located Zephyrhills community. The list price is the opening bid for the online auction. Sold As-is. Explore more details and submit your bid through Federa Home App.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: MPUD zoning

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Construction materials: See remarks
• Exterior features: Front porch; Other roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 room total
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Other flooring

🔨 Auction listing. The $5,000 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $371,406 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-833 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 111.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.61%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $371,406
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27427 Mistflower Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,673 (0%)	8mo	$319,000	$191	91
27421 Mistflower Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,751 (+5%)	23mo	$445,000	$254	66
3433 Chapel Creek Cir	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,525 (-9%)	3mo	$325,000	$213	64
3252 Chapel Creek Cir	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,790 (+7%)	2mo	$360,880	$202	62
27021 Cotton Key Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,722 (+3%)	4mo	$375,000	$218	52
2634 Rosehaven Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,570 (-6%)	8mo	$415,000	$264	48
27100 Stillbrook Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,541 (-8%)	18mo	$345,000	$224	37
2609 Rosehaven Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,854 (+11%)	10mo	$389,000	$210	36
2445 Silvermoss Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,871 (+12%)	15mo	$445,000	$238	30
26939 Stillbrook Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,871 (+12%)	18mo	$416,000	$222	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-119,640
• Equity at exit: $55,378

10-year hold

• IRR: -75.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.90×
• Total profit: $-197,221
• Equity at exit: $32,112

Cash invested: $103,994 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33544

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,194 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,948
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$464 /mo · $5,571/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-833

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,249

Max offer price $250,860

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,852
• Closing costs: $11,142
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3312 Chapel Creek Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,500	$1.42	14d	1	0.36mi
2954 Willowleaf Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	2.5	1265	$1,800	$1.42	24d	1	0.62mi
2756 Birchcreek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1513	$2,000	$1.32	14d	1	0.66mi
3613 Hatchbend Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1722	$2,360	$1.37	21d	1	0.67mi
27028 Cool Stream Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,100	$1.23	24d	1	0.70mi
2405 Silvermoss Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2070	$2,600	$1.26	17d	1	0.74mi
2401 Silvermoss Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,500	$1.34	24d	1	0.75mi
2409 Spring Hollow Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,250	$1.74	24d	1	0.76mi
26948 Juniper Bay Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1534	$2,200	$1.43	16d	1	0.77mi
26627 Castleview Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1545	$2,050	$1.33	24d	1	0.83mi
26638 Castleview Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1545	$2,050	$1.33	24d	1	0.85mi
26551 Castleview Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$1,995	$1.26	19d	1	0.87mi
2300 Guards St Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1228	$1,555	$1.27	4d	9	0.87mi
26546 Castleview Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$2,100	$1.32	20d	1	0.89mi
3916 Silverlake Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1534	$2,200	$1.43	24d	1	0.96mi
3943 Claybrook Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2048	$2,249	$1.10	14d	1	1.01mi
2990 Citron Gold Blvd Lutz, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1115	$2,255	$2.02	1d	17	1.47mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $5,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $5,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $5,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 299-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   listed $5,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,805
• − Property taxes: −$5,571
• − Insurance: −$1,857
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,107
• − Management: −$2,107
• − Depreciation: −$10,805
• Taxable loss: −$16,917
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,060
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,901
• Household income: $104,573
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 20% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.76%
• Current HPI: 266.5191
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.30%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $369,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $375,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $389,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-17 Listed $409,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Listed $430,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $355,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-27 Sold (MLS) $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-08 Price Changed $365,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-17 Price Changed $385,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-09 Price Changed $400,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-21 Listed $425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $219,900 Public Records
• 2011-09-17 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-13 Listed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,171 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.