8816 Lory Ln · Panama City, FL 32466

$129,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,836 sqft · Manufactured public records · 81 Days on market

Built 2001 1.04 ac lot Est $204k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vacant lot, (size is approx. ). Lot has underground utilities, septic, and 185' deep well. Owner has the pump for the well, and will convey with property. Septic tank will have to be approved by the health department.

Key facts

• Plenty of storage
• Acre of land
• Fenced in

Tags

• ACRE OF LAND
• FENCED IN
• OUTBUILDINGS
• PLENTY OF STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Double wide mobile home; Zoned for single family residential
• Construction: Metal roof; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Outbuilding; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 12.5 x 10.3 and 12.6 x 10.5); Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13.5 x 12.6)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $852 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($895 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $130k implies a 548% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,730 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.33%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,796
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8913 Firebird Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-2%)	10mo	$199,900	$111	56
6514 Rogers Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-14%)	9mo	$162,500	$102	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $124,810
• Equity at exit: $116,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.96×
• Total profit: $324,935
• Equity at exit: $251,590

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32466

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $335/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $852

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,122

Max offer price $129,500

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6131 Jaycee Dr Youngstown, FL	4.0	2.0	2356	$2,200	$0.93	13d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Active
2. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-24
   price $129,500
4. 2026-03-11
   price $149,000
5. 2026-02-24
   listed $155,000 Active
6. 2021-12-14
   historical
7. 2001-07-20
   soldstatus $20,000 217-char remark

   Show marketing remark (217 chars)

   Vacant lot, (size is approx. ). Lot has underground utilities, septic, and 185' deep well. Owner has the pump for the well, and will convey with property. Septic tank will have to be approved by the health department.

8. 2001-03-25
   listed $23,000 217-char remark

   Show marketing remark (217 chars)

   Vacant lot, (size is approx. ). Lot has underground utilities, septic, and 185' deep well. Owner has the pump for the well, and will convey with property. Septic tank will have to be approved by the health department.

9. 2000-02-22
   listed $27,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $335 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,075 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$740/yr (+$62/mo · 221.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$335
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable income: $8,670
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,081
• After-tax cash flow: $8,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 91,445
• Population (ZIP): 5,837

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.68%
• Current HPI: 274.7988
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+364.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $129,500 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $149,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $155,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2001-07-20 Sold (MLS) $20,000 CPARMLS
• 2001-03-25 Listed $23,000 CPARMLS
• 2000-02-22 Listed $27,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $335 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.