4236 Apple Branch Dr Unit 55-103 · Bellbrook, OH 45459

$224,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · Condo · 241 Days on market

Built 2025 $209/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Trendy new Monticello plan condo in beautiful Sugar Point! Featuring open concept living with an island kitchen with upgraded counters and walk-in pantry all overlooking the family room, which has walk out access to the covered deck. Central formal dining room. Homeowners retreat with an en suite bath. Second bedroom and hall bath.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Island kitchen
• En suite bath

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED DECK
• CENTRAL FORMAL DINING ROOM
• EN SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: For sale
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Eclipse Community Mgmt; Monthly HOA fee of $209 covering association management

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single-story; New construction; Monticello model; Has home warranty
• Construction: Brick and fiber cement exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Condo lot type; Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: Main level bedroom (12 x 10); Main level bedroom (12 x 14)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating with heat pump
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Insulated vinyl windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($619/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.4% in Bellbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#134 in OH, #1,892 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bellbrook-Sugarcreek Local (suburban): math 79% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #45 of 656 in OH (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 797 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (148 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $197,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-33,916
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-28,390
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45459

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,297 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,374/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$209
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,232

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $207	-5% $129	+0% $52	+5% $-26	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-39	+0% $52	+5% $142	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $109	base $52	+0.5pp $-7	+1.0pp $-66

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1635 Autumn Spice Pl Unit NA Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1651	$2,725	$1.65	4d	1	0.04mi
1635 Autumn Spice Pl Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1651	$2,850	$1.73	24d	1	0.04mi
4500 Dogwood Cir E Centerville, OH	1.0	1.5	1213	$2,668	$2.20	45d	2	1.17mi
6591 Brigham Sq #7 Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,500	$1.39	22d	1	1.21mi
515 Kilkenny Ct Unit NA Sugarcreek Township, OH	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,545	$1.70	15d	1	1.25mi
4208 Bellemead Dr Bellbrook, OH	3.0	1.5	1416	$1,995	$1.41	4d	1	1.29mi
5685 Coach Dr E Apt E Kettering, OH	3.0	2.0	1146	$1,375	$1.20	45d	1	1.44mi
6620 Green Branch Dr #4 Centerville, OH	2.0	2.0	987	$1,375	$1.39	4d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $209 · $2,508/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $224,900
3. 2026-03-20
   price $229,900
4. 2026-02-18
   price $234,900
5. 2025-10-13
   price $239,900
6. 2025-10-01
   price $249,900
7. 2025-09-09
   price $259,900
8. 2025-09-02
   listed $264,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$3,374
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,205
• − Management: −$2,205
• − HOA: −$2,508
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$2,990
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$718
• After-tax cash flow: $1,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellbrook-Sugarcreek Local
• NCES district ID: 3904727
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $87,482
• Composite: 70.01/100
• National rank: #280
• State rank: #45 of 656 in OH

Livability — Bellbrook

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #1892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 11,597
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 28,553
• Household income: $89,592
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,301 people
• By 2030: 171,840 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 171,408 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 167,806 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 154,430 · -9.3%
• By 2100: 138,669 · -18.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.5% · R 59.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.27%
• Current HPI: 254.7793
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $224,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $229,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $234,900 Dayton MLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $239,900 Dayton MLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $249,900 Dayton MLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $259,900 Dayton MLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $264,900 Dayton MLS