511 Main St · Pope, MS 38658

$254,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,953 sqft · SingleFamily · 130 Days on market

Built 1960 1.80 ac lot $130/sqft · 20% below area Est $318k · 20% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Complete remodel in Pope School district. Large living area. 4 Bedrooms. New cabinets. new paint inside and out. New pex plumbing. New Stainless steel appliances. all new windows. 1.8 acre lot.

Key facts

• 1.8 acre lot
• Large living area
• New pex plumbing

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW PEX PLUMBING
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW WINDOWS
• 1.8 ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-617 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (43.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (43.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#257 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• South Panola School District (town): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #65 of 130 in MS (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Panola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
• Panola County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,061 (43.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.41%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,532
• List price: $254,000
• Delta: -20.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6596 Hwy 51	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,982 (+2%)	14mo	$314,000	$158	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $92,941
• Equity at exit: $222,331

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.26×
• Total profit: $303,125
• Equity at exit: $472,720

Cash invested: $71,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38658

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,441 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$318 /mo · $3,810/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,222

Max offer price $164,682

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-442	-5% $-529	+0% $-617	+5% $-705	+10% $-793
Rent	-10% $-731	-5% $-674	+0% $-617	+5% $-560	+10% $-503
Rate	-1.0pp $-489	-0.5pp $-553	base $-617	+0.5pp $-683	+1.0pp $-750

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,500
• Closing costs: $7,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $254,000 Pending 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $254,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $254,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $254,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $254,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $254,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $254,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-05-05
    price $259,000 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Complete remodel in Pope School district. Large living area. 4 Bedrooms. New cabinets. new paint inside and out. New pex plumbing. New Stainless steel appliances. all new windows. 1.8 acre lot.

11. 2026-04-09
    price $264,000 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Complete remodel in Pope School district. Large living area. 4 Bedrooms. New cabinets. new paint inside and out. New pex plumbing. New Stainless steel appliances. all new windows. 1.8 acre lot.

12. 2026-03-13
    price $269,900 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Complete remodel in Pope School district. Large living area. 4 Bedrooms. New cabinets. new paint inside and out. New pex plumbing. New Stainless steel appliances. all new windows. 1.8 acre lot.

13. 2026-03-02
    status Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Complete remodel in Pope School district. Large living area. 4 Bedrooms. New cabinets. new paint inside and out. New pex plumbing. New Stainless steel appliances. all new windows. 1.8 acre lot.

14. 2025-12-11
    price $279,000 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Complete remodel in Pope School district. Large living area. 4 Bedrooms. New cabinets. new paint inside and out. New pex plumbing. New Stainless steel appliances. all new windows. 1.8 acre lot.

15. 2025-12-02
    price $284,000 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Complete remodel in Pope School district. Large living area. 4 Bedrooms. New cabinets. new paint inside and out. New pex plumbing. New Stainless steel appliances. all new windows. 1.8 acre lot.

16. 2025-09-29
    status Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Complete remodel in Pope School district. Large living area. 4 Bedrooms. New cabinets. new paint inside and out. New pex plumbing. New Stainless steel appliances. all new windows. 1.8 acre lot.

17. 2025-09-08
    status Pending 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Complete remodel in Pope School district. Large living area. 4 Bedrooms. New cabinets. new paint inside and out. New pex plumbing. New Stainless steel appliances. all new windows. 1.8 acre lot.

18. 2025-08-07
    listed $289,000 Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Complete remodel in Pope School district. Large living area. 4 Bedrooms. New cabinets. new paint inside and out. New pex plumbing. New Stainless steel appliances. all new windows. 1.8 acre lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,228
• − Property taxes: −$3,810
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,383
• − Management: −$1,383
• − Depreciation: −$7,389
• Taxable loss: −$12,176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,922
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Panola School District
• NCES district ID: 2804050
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,663
• Composite: 26.27/100
• National rank: #7250
• State rank: #65 of 130 in MS

Livability — Pope

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #257
• US rank: #20501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pope, MS
• Population (ZIP): 2,557

Population outlook (Panola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,645 people
• By 2030: 31,477 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 28,894 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 26,108 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 19,292 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 12,787 · -60.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Panola

• 2024 margin: R (+14.8) · D 42.0% · R 56.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.4pp toward R · 2008: 6.5pp · 2024: -14.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+8.6 2008: D+6.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.65%
• Current HPI: 203.6652
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $259,000 NCMBR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $264,000 NCMBR
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $269,900 NCMBR
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — NCMBR
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $279,000 NCMBR
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $284,000 NCMBR
• 2025-09-29 Relisted — NCMBR
• 2025-09-08 Pending — NCMBR
• 2025-08-07 Listed $289,000 NCMBR