4425 Randolph St · Buena Vista, MI 48601

$24,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1939 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment Opportunity! Seller does have portfolio a of homes in the area that are being sold. Home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, large family room, deck, and a nice size yard. Call today for a private showing!

Key facts

• Large family room
• Nice size yard
• Deck

Tags

• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• DECK
• NICE SIZE YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Private maintained road access; Private road frontage
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built as residential single-family
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Steam heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($949 rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.5% vs local median 11.7% in Buena Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $172 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $21,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.63%
• DSCR: 5.17
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,344
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2510 S Outer Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,336 (+2%)	12mo	$112,000	$84	69
2963 Welland Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,268 (-3%)	7mo	$165,000	$130	60
2454 Bellevue St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,156 (-12%)	11mo	$69,900	$60	53
2971 Welland Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,454 (+11%)	8mo	$90,000	$62	45
3129 E Genesee Ave	0.54mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,506 (+15%)	1mo	$24,500	$16	44
4768 Old Hess Road Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-8%)	18mo	$65,000	$54	42
1600 Prueter Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,407 (+7%)	19mo	$42,500	$30	41
3326 Elmers Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+5%)	16mo	$115,000	$83	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $30,646
• Equity at exit: $3,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 97.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.25×
• Total profit: $71,439
• Equity at exit: $2,153

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $949 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $773/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $260

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2564 Apollo Dr Unit AP2564 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	0.63mi
2554 Apollo Dr Unit AP2554 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	0.64mi
2620 Gemini St Unit GE2620 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	1140	$920	$0.81	44d	1	0.67mi
2800 Gemini St Unit GE2800 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$920	$0.96	44d	1	0.68mi
3328 Webber St Saginaw, MI	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	44d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $24,900 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $24,900 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,900 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $24,900 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $24,900 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $24,900 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $24,900 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $24,900 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $24,900 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,900 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $24,900 Active 166 DOM
12. 2025-12-15
    listed $24,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity! Seller does have portfolio a of homes in the area that are being sold. Home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, large family room, deck, and a nice size yard. Call today for a private showing!

13. 2025-12-15
    listed $24,900 Active 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity! Seller does have portfolio a of homes in the area that are being sold. Home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, large family room, deck, and a nice size yard. Call today for a private showing!

14. 2025-03-11
    historical
15. 2025-03-11
    historical
16. 2025-01-21
    price $27,000
17. 2025-01-20
    price $27,000
18. 2024-11-12
    listed $32,000 Active
19. 2024-11-12
    listed $32,000 Active
20. 2024-04-07
    historical
21. 2024-04-07
    historical
22. 2024-03-24
    status Active
23. 2024-03-24
    status Back on Market
24. 2023-05-05
    historical
25. 2023-05-04
    historical
26. 2023-02-06
    listed $27,000 Active
27. 2023-02-06
    listed $27,000 Active
28. 2022-03-07
    soldstatus $22,000 Sold
29. 2022-03-07
    soldstatus $22,000 Closed
30. 2022-02-17
    status Pending
31. 2022-02-17
    status Pending
32. 2022-02-02
    listed $19,500 Active
33. 2022-02-02
    listed $19,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $773 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $773 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$773
• − Insurance: −$124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$911
• − Management: −$911
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $6,545
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,571
• After-tax cash flow: $4,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #20603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buena Vista, MI
• City population: 32,069
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+27.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Listed $24,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-15 Listed $24,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-03-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $27,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-20 Price Changed $27,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-11-12 Listed $32,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-11-12 Listed $32,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-03-24 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-03-24 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-05-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-05-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-02-06 Listed $27,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-02-06 Listed $27,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-03-07 Sold (MLS) $22,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-07 Sold (MLS) $22,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-02-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-02-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-02 Listed $19,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-02 Listed $19,500 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $773 · -47.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.