5516 W Lazy Heart St · Tucson Estates, AZ 85713

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 160 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1971 3,833 sqft lot $656/sqft · 407% above area Est $120k · 13% under $208/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Neat furnished home with split bedrooms Expanded living room and central air. Large storage shed and golf cart included.

Key facts

• Tennis
• Pickleball
• Shuffleboard

Tags

• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• UNLIMITED GOLF
• TENNIS
• PICKLEBALL
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot with north/south exposure on paved streets (HOA maintains road); Zoning: Pima County - TH
• HOA & community: Part of TEPOA; Monthly HOA fee $208; HOA transfer fee $153; HOA maintains common areas and streets; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, sauna, recreation room, tennis courts, pickleball, shuffleboard, putting green, golf, fitness center, paved streets, street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 covered/carport space; Storage in parking area
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Frame construction; Built-Up reflective roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Furnished; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Laura N. Banks Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #888 of 1,109 statewide, top 81%, 308 students, 70% FRL); Valencia Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 722 students, 79% FRL); Cholla High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,760 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $105k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.95%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,012
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -12.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-6,708
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,049
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,382 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $841/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$208
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,104

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5709 W Rocking Circle St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1050	$895	$0.85	44d	1	0.21mi
5849 W Flying M St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,625	$1.35	44d	1	0.38mi
3156 S Three D Ct Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	2238	$1,995	$0.89	44d	1	0.38mi
3923 S Amber Rock Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	2580	$2,600	$1.01	44d	1	0.75mi
6174 W Lazy Heart St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,495	$1.04	44d	1	0.84mi
4220 S Macy Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2223	$2,400	$1.08	16d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $208 · $2,496/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $105,000 Active 480-char remark
16. 2025-11-22
    status Active
17. 2025-11-12
    status Pending
18. 2025-11-12
    historical
19. 2025-09-19
    listed $105,000 Active
20. 2013-04-22
    soldstatus $41,000

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Neat furnished home with split bedrooms Expanded living room and central air. Large storage shed and golf cart included.

21. 2013-03-26
    historical

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Neat furnished home with split bedrooms Expanded living room and central air. Large storage shed and golf cart included.

22. 2012-11-29
    listed $49,000

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Neat furnished home with split bedrooms Expanded living room and central air. Large storage shed and golf cart included.

23. 2012-03-05
    historical
24. 2011-11-29
    listed $54,900
25. 1991-03-05
    soldstatus $30,000
26. 1991-02-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $841 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $841 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$841
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,327
• − Management: −$1,327
• − HOA: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $1,133
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$272
• After-tax cash flow: $2,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+250.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $105,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-22 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-12 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-19 Listed $105,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-04-22 Sold (MLS) $41,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-03-26 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2012-11-29 Listed $49,000 MLSSAZ
• 2012-03-05 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2011-11-29 Listed $54,900 MLSSAZ
• 1991-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1991-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $841 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.