25529 Northpark Palm Dr · Porter, TX 77365

$245,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,142 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 4,687 sqft lot 2-car garage $114/sqft · 14% below area Est $286k · 14% under $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and practicality. Featuring a spacious open-concept design, the large living area flows effortlessly into a modern kitchen equipped with sleek appliances and plenty of counter space, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The master suite serves as a tranquil retreat, complete with a luxurious en-suite bathroom and generous closet space. Step outside to a beautifully landscaped backyard, offering a peaceful, private oasis—perfect for outdoor dining, relaxation, or hosting gatherings. Conveniently located near top-rated schools, shopping centers, and major highways, this home delivers exceptional comfort and convenience in a highly desirable neighborhood.

Key facts

• 4,687 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-243 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (17.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.4% in Porter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brookwood Forest El (math 25% / reading 26%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 942 students, 84% FRL); Woodridge Forest Middle (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,288 students, 64% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 57% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,151 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.24%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,196
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -7.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19837 S Plantation Estates Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,192 (+2%)	5mo	$429,950	$196	72
25802 Northpark Pine Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,034 (-5%)	6mo	$295,000	$145	67
19827 Bridgemill Park Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,178 (+2%)	1mo	$309,900	$142	62
20722 Oakhurst Crk	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,096 (-2%)	2mo	$330,000	$157	56
20743 Oakhurst Park Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,225 (+4%)	2mo	$289,999	$130	55
20706 Oakhurst Creek Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,118 (-1%)	5mo	$315,000	$149	54
25511 Ramsey Heights Way	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-9%)	4mo	$279,990	$144	48
24930 Plantation Estates Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,250 (+5%)	13mo	$549,990	$244	47
20809 Langworth Pl	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (-6%)	11mo	$299,900	$148	47
20068 Northpark Ash Ln	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,831 (-14%)	4mo	$210,000	$115	46
20730 Oakhurst Creek Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,428 (+13%)	4mo	$333,500	$137	39
20714 Oakhurst Creek Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,865 (-13%)	8mo	$300,000	$161	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-58,118
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-82,334
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.7 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $292,000 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 58 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -12.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1168
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$752 /mo · $9,025/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,781

Max offer price $202,151

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-104	-5% $-173	+0% $-243	+5% $-312	+10% $-381
Rent	-10% $-438	-5% $-340	+0% $-243	+5% $-145	+10% $-47
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-180	base $-243	+0.5pp $-306	+1.0pp $-371

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19623 Cat Spruce Ct Porter, TX	5.0	3.0	2438	$2,450	$1.00	3d	1	0.09mi
25515 Kensington Lake Dr Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	2739	$2,091	$0.76	48d	1	0.33mi
20746 Oakhurst Trails Dr Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	2634	$2,156	$0.82	0d	1	0.68mi
20047 Briarcliff Park Ln Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	1785	$2,035	$1.14	64d	1	0.84mi
25601 Thistle Valley Ct Porter, TX	4.0	2.0	2300	$2,295	$1.00	93d	1	0.89mi
24770 Stowbridge Dr Porter, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$2,349	$2.12	0d	34	1.03mi
21919 Northpark Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,962	$1.95	1d	40	1.29mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure and seller disclosure provided
• HOA & community: Community Solutions associationAnnual association fee of $700Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFaces west
• Construction: Built in 2022Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyardPrivate yardSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalGas ovenMicrowaveRefrigeratorPantry
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen open to family roomPrimary bedroom with private bathPantryTub with showerLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupGas dryer hookupWasher includedTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $245,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $245,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $245,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $245,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $245,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $245,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $245,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $245,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $245,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $245,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $245,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $245,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $245,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $245,000 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $245,000 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $245,000 Active 47 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $245,000 Active 46 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $245,000 Active 45 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $245,000 Active 44 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $245,000 Active 43 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $245,000 Active 42 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $245,000 Active 41 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $245,000 Active 40 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 38 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $245,000 Active 37 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $245,000 Active 36 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 35 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 34 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 33 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 32 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 31 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $245,000 Active 30 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $245,000 Active 29 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $245,000 Active 28 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $245,000 Active 27 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $245,000 Active 25 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $245,000 Active 23 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $245,000 Active 22 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $245,000 Active 19 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $245,000 Active 18 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $245,000 Active 17 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    price $245,000 Active 16 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $255,000 Active 16 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $255,000 Active 14 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    price $255,000 Active 10 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $265,000 Active 10 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 9 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 8 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,025 · $752/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,025 · $752/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$9,025
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,375
• − Management: −$2,375
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$6,860
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,646
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,710–$32,130 screening

This well-maintained single-family home offers a good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Replace ceiling fan — Improves air circulation and adds a modern touch ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Brookwood Forest El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Woodridge Forest Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High West Fork H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 46,418
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure and seller disclosure provided
• HOA & community: Community Solutions associationAnnual association fee of $700Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFaces west
• Construction: Built in 2022Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyardPrivate yardSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalGas ovenMicrowaveRefrigeratorPantry
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen open to family roomPrimary bedroom with private bathPantryTub with showerLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupGas dryer hookupWasher includedTankless water heater

Price history

-15.2% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-30 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-12-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-12-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-11-19 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2024-11-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-14 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Listed $299,995 HARMLS
• 2024-08-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-29 Listed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-05-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-05-20 Price Changed $306,990 HARMLS
• 2022-04-25 Price Changed $311,990 HARMLS
• 2022-04-08 Price Changed $316,990 HARMLS
• 2022-04-01 Price Changed $313,990 HARMLS
• 2022-03-30 Price Changed $311,990 HARMLS
• 2022-03-21 Price Changed $307,990 HARMLS
• 2022-03-08 Price Changed $303,990 HARMLS
• 2022-03-02 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2022-02-25 Price Changed $295,990 HARMLS
• 2022-02-01 Price Changed $291,990 HARMLS
• 2022-01-26 Listed $288,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+42.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,025 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.