3511 W Nieman Dr · Pine Ridge, FL 34433

$244,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2021 0.26 ac lot Est $221k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a stunning, like-new home in Citrus Springs, FL! Built in 2021, this immaculately maintained residence offers a pristine living environment with all the modern features you desire. From the moment you step inside, you'll be greeted by a sense of freshness and sophistication. Every corner of this home showcases meticulous care and attention to detail. The interior boasts new paint and beautiful vinyl flooring throughout, creating a cohesive and stylish atmosphere. The kitchen is a true highlight, featuring new hardware, cabinets, and countertops that exude contemporary elegance. The stainless steel appliances add a touch of luxury and functionality to the space. As you explore the property, you'll notice the perfect opportunity for you to create your own outdoor oasis, tailored to your preferences and style. Schedule a showing today and imagine the endless possibilities for making this house your perfect home!

Key facts

• Irrigation
• Easy access
• Gutters

Tags

• CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• SCREENED BACK PORCH
• NEWER POWERED SHED
• GUTTERS
• IRRIGATION
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead eligible; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Aerobic septic; Electricity connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Sprinkler meter; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Northeast facing; Completed condition
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on lot of about 0.26 acres (approx. 90 x 125)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch (screened); Rain gutters; Storage shed; Irrigation equipment; Landscaped lot; Limerock road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Window treatments; Pest guard system
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-385/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#565 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,283 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,432
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6642 N Roland Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+13%)	0mo	$231,500	$164	71
6604 N Roland Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+13%)	2mo	$242,500	$172	71
6656 N Roland Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+13%)	2mo	$230,000	$164	70
3085 W Hampshire Blvd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+10%)	1mo	$293,000	$215	61
6769 N Waterman Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+13%)	11mo	$249,900	$178	56
6727 N Waycross Way	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	3mo	$247,000	$176	55
5925 N Sultana Ter	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+0%)	17mo	$295,000	$236	54
3838 W Baton Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+13%)	10mo	$250,000	$178	53
3331 W Gates Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+8%)	2mo	$250,000	$186	50
7090 N Maltese Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	6mo	$330,100	$236	49
7115 N Dunlap Ter	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+11%)	7mo	$315,000	$228	46
7104 N Maltese Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,419 (+14%)	6mo	$249,900	$176	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-41,758
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-39,124
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34433

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,973 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,451/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,013

Max offer price $239,239

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $37	+0% $-32	+5% $-101	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-110	+0% $-32	+5% $46	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $30	base $-32	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,900 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $244,900 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $244,900 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,900 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,900 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,900 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,900 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $244,900 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    status Active
17. 2026-05-21
    historical
18. 2026-05-08
    price $244,900
19. 2026-03-13
    price $249,900
20. 2026-02-27
    listed $255,000 Active
21. 2023-09-25
    soldstatus $235,000
22. 2023-09-22
    soldstatus $235,000 Closed 933-char remark

    Show marketing remark (933 chars)

    Welcome to a stunning, like-new home in Citrus Springs, FL! Built in 2021, this immaculately maintained residence offers a pristine living environment with all the modern features you desire. From the moment you step inside, you'll be greeted by a sense of freshness and sophistication. Every corner of this home showcases meticulous care and attention to detail. The interior boasts new paint and beautiful vinyl flooring throughout, creating a cohesive and stylish atmosphere. The kitchen is a true highlight, featuring new hardware, cabinets, and countertops that exude contemporary elegance. The stainless steel appliances add a touch of luxury and functionality to the space. As you explore the property, you'll notice the perfect opportunity for you to create your own outdoor oasis, tailored to your preferences and style. Schedule a showing today and imagine the endless possibilities for making this house your perfect home!

23. 2023-09-22
    soldstatus $235,000 Closed 933-char remark

    Show marketing remark (933 chars)

    Welcome to a stunning, like-new home in Citrus Springs, FL! Built in 2021, this immaculately maintained residence offers a pristine living environment with all the modern features you desire. From the moment you step inside, you'll be greeted by a sense of freshness and sophistication. Every corner of this home showcases meticulous care and attention to detail. The interior boasts new paint and beautiful vinyl flooring throughout, creating a cohesive and stylish atmosphere. The kitchen is a true highlight, featuring new hardware, cabinets, and countertops that exude contemporary elegance. The stainless steel appliances add a touch of luxury and functionality to the space. As you explore the property, you'll notice the perfect opportunity for you to create your own outdoor oasis, tailored to your preferences and style. Schedule a showing today and imagine the endless possibilities for making this house your perfect home!

24. 2023-08-13
    status Pending 933-char remark

    Show marketing remark (933 chars)

    Welcome to a stunning, like-new home in Citrus Springs, FL! Built in 2021, this immaculately maintained residence offers a pristine living environment with all the modern features you desire. From the moment you step inside, you'll be greeted by a sense of freshness and sophistication. Every corner of this home showcases meticulous care and attention to detail. The interior boasts new paint and beautiful vinyl flooring throughout, creating a cohesive and stylish atmosphere. The kitchen is a true highlight, featuring new hardware, cabinets, and countertops that exude contemporary elegance. The stainless steel appliances add a touch of luxury and functionality to the space. As you explore the property, you'll notice the perfect opportunity for you to create your own outdoor oasis, tailored to your preferences and style. Schedule a showing today and imagine the endless possibilities for making this house your perfect home!

25. 2023-08-13
    status Pending 933-char remark

    Show marketing remark (933 chars)

    Welcome to a stunning, like-new home in Citrus Springs, FL! Built in 2021, this immaculately maintained residence offers a pristine living environment with all the modern features you desire. From the moment you step inside, you'll be greeted by a sense of freshness and sophistication. Every corner of this home showcases meticulous care and attention to detail. The interior boasts new paint and beautiful vinyl flooring throughout, creating a cohesive and stylish atmosphere. The kitchen is a true highlight, featuring new hardware, cabinets, and countertops that exude contemporary elegance. The stainless steel appliances add a touch of luxury and functionality to the space. As you explore the property, you'll notice the perfect opportunity for you to create your own outdoor oasis, tailored to your preferences and style. Schedule a showing today and imagine the endless possibilities for making this house your perfect home!

26. 2023-07-13
    listed $250,000 Active 933-char remark

    Show marketing remark (933 chars)

    Welcome to a stunning, like-new home in Citrus Springs, FL! Built in 2021, this immaculately maintained residence offers a pristine living environment with all the modern features you desire. From the moment you step inside, you'll be greeted by a sense of freshness and sophistication. Every corner of this home showcases meticulous care and attention to detail. The interior boasts new paint and beautiful vinyl flooring throughout, creating a cohesive and stylish atmosphere. The kitchen is a true highlight, featuring new hardware, cabinets, and countertops that exude contemporary elegance. The stainless steel appliances add a touch of luxury and functionality to the space. As you explore the property, you'll notice the perfect opportunity for you to create your own outdoor oasis, tailored to your preferences and style. Schedule a showing today and imagine the endless possibilities for making this house your perfect home!

27. 2023-07-12
    listed $250,000 Active 933-char remark

    Show marketing remark (933 chars)

    Welcome to a stunning, like-new home in Citrus Springs, FL! Built in 2021, this immaculately maintained residence offers a pristine living environment with all the modern features you desire. From the moment you step inside, you'll be greeted by a sense of freshness and sophistication. Every corner of this home showcases meticulous care and attention to detail. The interior boasts new paint and beautiful vinyl flooring throughout, creating a cohesive and stylish atmosphere. The kitchen is a true highlight, featuring new hardware, cabinets, and countertops that exude contemporary elegance. The stainless steel appliances add a touch of luxury and functionality to the space. As you explore the property, you'll notice the perfect opportunity for you to create your own outdoor oasis, tailored to your preferences and style. Schedule a showing today and imagine the endless possibilities for making this house your perfect home!

28. 2022-03-31
    soldstatus $199,000
29. 2021-03-29
    soldstatus $164,990
30. 2021-01-11
    listed $164,990
31. 2020-07-21
    soldstatus $96,000
32. 2004-11-01
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,451 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,451 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$2,451
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$4,632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,112
• After-tax cash flow: $727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pine Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #565
• US rank: #10798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge, FL
• City population: 18,514
• Population (ZIP): 8,218

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.35%
• Current HPI: 340.9844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4798.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-22 Sold (MLS) $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-22 Sold (MLS) $235,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-08-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-13 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2023-07-13 Listed $250,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-07-12 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $199,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-29 Sold (MLS) $164,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-11 Listed $164,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+42.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,451 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.