10833 Paddling Trace Run · Ruskin, FL 34219

$349,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,914 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Built 2026 6,000 sqft lot $71/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The Equinox floor plan offers the opportunity to move in soon and start making lifelong memories. This brand-new four-bedroom, two-bath home features an open-concept layout with stylish new finishes throughout. Enjoy cooking and entertaining in your modern kitchen equipped with brand-new stainless steel appliances and plenty of counter space. Retreat to your spacious primary suite, complete with a large walk-in closet. Located in the sought-after Oakfield Lakes community by Starlight Homes in Parrish, Florida, residents will enjoy amenities including a pool, playground, and open green spaces. Don’t miss your chance to make this home yours!

Key facts

• Pool
• Large walk-in closet
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• OAKFIELD LAKES COMMUNITY
• POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment installed; Permit number BLD2507-4478
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $3,269; Tax year 2026; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by First Service Residential; Monthly HOA approximately $71.33 (total annual fees $856); Quarterly association fee of $214; HOA amenities include pool and playground; Deed restrictions; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Underground utilities; Cable available; BB/HS internet available; Phone available; Fire hydrant
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction (projected completion Feb 20, 2026); Faces north; Under construction
• Construction: Block, cement siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Starlight Homes (model: Equinox)
• Exterior features: Patio; Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Sprinkler (metered); Sidewalk; Street lights; Trees/landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floor plan; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $361,746.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $306,793 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $361,746
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10833 Paddling Trace Run	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,914 (0%)	1mo	$346,990	$181	99
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-3%)	1mo	$361,990	$196	81
10837 Paddling Trace Run	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,761 (-8%)	1mo	$339,990	$193	80
12816 Blue Reflection Ave	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-3%)	2mo	$378,190	$204	78
13131 Bending Creek Trl	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,020 (+6%)	0mo	$380,990	$189	74
13128 Bending Creek Trl	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,020 (+6%)	2mo	$376,500	$186	73
11104 Curving Creek Loop	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,020 (+6%)	0mo	$380,990	$189	72
10908 Curving Creek Loop	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (-12%)	1mo	$329,990	$197	72
13111 Bending Creek Trl	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,020 (+6%)	3mo	$369,000	$183	71
10469 Curving Creek Loop	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-5%)	2mo	$337,990	$185	65
10972 Gentle Current Way	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-4%)	2mo	$344,890	$189	65
13257 Bending Creek Trl	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,164 (+13%)	1mo	$374,990	$173	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-76,900
• Equity at exit: $53,938

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-113,423
• Equity at exit: $31,277

Cash invested: $101,289 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,897
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$452 /mo · $5,426/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$644
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,254

Max offer price $340,434

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $-22	+0% $-147	+5% $-272	+10% $-397
Rent	-10% $-390	-5% $-268	+0% $-147	+5% $-26	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-55	base $-147	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,436
• Closing costs: $10,852
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	5d	1	0.28mi
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	16d	1	0.39mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	25d	1	0.67mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	17d	1	0.72mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	25d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   status Active
3. 2026-05-01
   price $349,990
4. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-13
   price $339,990
6. 2026-03-25
   price $349,990
7. 2026-03-17
   price $369,990
8. 2026-02-25
   price $359,990
9. 2026-02-10
   price $389,990
10. 2026-02-09
    price $391,740
11. 2026-01-16
    price $387,490
12. 2026-01-16
    listed $374,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,263
• − Property taxes: −$5,426
• − Insurance: −$1,809
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,945
• − Management: −$2,945
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$10,524
• Taxable loss: −$7,949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,908
• After-tax cash flow: $140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $349,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $339,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $349,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $369,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $359,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $389,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $391,740 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $387,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $374,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid