105 Pemberton Ct · Bristol, TN 37620

$59,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1980 1.00 ac lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-loved home at 105 Pemberton Ct is full of potential and ready for your personal touch. A true fixer-upper, it just needs a little TLC to bring out its charm and make it your own.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $885 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.3% vs local median 3.8% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#24 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, commute F, employment F.
• Bristol (urban): math 37% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #29 of 139 in TN (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairmount Elementary (math 28% / reading 21%, grade F, #546 of 952 statewide, top 61%, 349 students, 0% FRL); Bristol Tennessee Middle School (math 37% / reading 29%, grade F, #77 of 333 statewide, top 24%, 883 students, 0% FRL); Tennessee High School (math 20% / reading 41%, grade F, #75 of 332 statewide, top 24%, 1,154 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $58,115 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.27%
• DSCR: 3.86
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $46,835
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.87×
• Total profit: $113,528
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37620

• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,276/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $885

Break-even live

Break-even rent $557

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $918	-5% $901	+0% $885	+5% $868	+10% $851
Rent	-10% $752	-5% $819	+0% $885	+5% $951	+10% $1,017
Rate	-1.0pp $914	-0.5pp $900	base $885	+0.5pp $869	+1.0pp $854

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1308 Columbia Rd Bristol, TN	3.0	1.0	1198	$1,375	$1.15	23d	1	0.27mi
924 Maryland Ave Unit F Bristol, TN	2.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	15d	1	0.94mi
712 Haynes St Bristol, TN	3.0	2.0	2228	$2,100	$0.94	15d	1	1.20mi
2237 Weaver Pike Bristol, TN	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-10-17
   soldstatus $58,000
2. 2025-09-22
   status Pending
3. 2025-09-11
   price $59,000
4. 2025-08-27
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,276 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,276 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$1,276
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $10,315
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,476
• After-tax cash flow: $8,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bristol
• NCES district ID: 4700360
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,018
• Composite: 29.95/100
• National rank: #6376
• State rank: #29 of 139 in TN

Livability — Bristol

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #5413

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bristol, TN
• County: Sullivan County · 121,987 people
• City population: 38,494
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,494
• Household income: $56,128
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,030 people
• By 2030: 156,415 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 153,778 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 149,018 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 138,068 · -12.1%
• By 2100: 119,927 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 22.0% · R 77.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -41.3pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+56.2 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+41.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -294.12%
• Current HPI: 263.38
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-22.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2025-09-22 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $59,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $75,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,276 · +21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.