638 Kingston Rd · Middle River, MD 21220

$158,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · Townhouse public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1972 3,485 sqft lot Est $201k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming, end-of-row townhouse offers a delightful blend of comfort and functionality. Step inside to discover beautiful hardwood floors that flow throughout the main living areas, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The efficient kitchen features essential appliances, including a gas oven/range and refrigerator in a bright airy room. With three spacious bedrooms, there's plenty of room for relaxation and personalization. The unfinished basement provides ample space for storage or the potential to create additional living areas, complete with a walkout level for easy access to the outdoors. Outside, enjoy the oversized deck, perfect for morning coffee or evening gatherings. The pr

Key facts

• Brick retaining wall
• Off street parking
• Oversized deck

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EFFICIENT KITCHEN
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• OVERSIZED DECK
• BRICK RETAINING WALL
• OFF STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Property condition listed as average; Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway; One off-street parking space; On-street and alley access available; Total of one garage/parking space listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available (heating and hot water); Electric service 120/240V; Cable TV and cable internet available
• Home design: End-of-row townhouse; Main entrance faces east; Not winterized
• Construction: Brick, fiberglass siding, and shingle siding construction; Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Picket and privacy rear fencing; Deck with roof (brick elements); Corner and sloping lot with side yards; Above-grade outdoor structure(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven/range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate plank
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Tub shower; Efficiency-style kitchen; Window treatments; Wood floors; Dining area; Drywall walls and ceilings; Storm door
• Laundry & utility: Basement space for rooms (unfinished); Sump pump

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.2% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hawthorne Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #766 of 860 statewide, top 93%, 491 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 39% district-wide (48 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 5% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baltimore County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 251 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $158k implies a 531% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.89%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,314
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
658 Kingston Rd	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-3%)	6mo	$205,000	$201	88
727 Kingston Rd	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-3%)	18mo	$166,500	$163	75
2165 Firethorn Rd	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,024 (-3%)	6mo	$135,000	$132	66
2106 Coralthorn Rd	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,024 (-3%)	16mo	$217,500	$212	63
2229 Redthorn Rd	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+8%)	13mo	$141,000	$123	57
2151 Coralthorn Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,194 (+13%)	2mo	$185,500	$155	56
2228 Redthorn Rd	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,144 (+8%)	13mo	$175,000	$153	56
349 Dark Head Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	6mo	$240,000	$208	56
2211 Vailthorn Rd	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+9%)	14mo	$175,000	$152	56
2227 Firethorn Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+9%)	14mo	$220,000	$191	50
53 S Hawthorne Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-3%)	9mo	$222,100	$217	50
1 Helmsman	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,150 (+9%)	14mo	$240,000	$209	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,733
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $27,592
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,148/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,359

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $601	-5% $557	+0% $512	+5% $467	+10% $422
Rent	-10% $353	-5% $433	+0% $512	+5% $591	+10% $670
Rate	-1.0pp $592	-0.5pp $552	base $512	+0.5pp $471	+1.0pp $429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2128 Cockspur Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1272	$2,100	$1.65	25d	1	0.08mi
736 West Kingsway Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,742	$1.58	20d	7	0.14mi
2242 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,195	$2.14	45d	1	0.27mi
2167 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1324	$1,900	$1.44	25d	1	0.27mi
433 Grovethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,000	$1.95	23d	1	0.31mi
2203 Redthorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,200	$1.92	12d	1	0.38mi
2202 Firethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.5	1324	$2,300	$1.74	45d	1	0.46mi
1 Alder Dr Middle River, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	1000	$2,249	$2.25	6d	10	0.57mi
439 Hopkins Landing Dr Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1485	$1,795	$1.21	12d	1	0.62mi
120 Kingston Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	25d	1	0.63mi
2125 Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1299	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	0.70mi
28 Ebbing Ct Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,195	$1.50	12d	1	0.71mi
60 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1234	$2,250	$1.82	45d	1	0.71mi
47 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,900	$1.86	25d	1	0.74mi
2 Driftwood Ct Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	720	$1,198	$1.66	4d	5	0.89mi
54 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1260	$1,950	$1.55	45d	1	1.20mi
1409 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	6d	1	1.22mi
153 Bennett Rd Unit Labs Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	6d	1	1.22mi
1402 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,925	$1.34	4d	1	1.23mi
1402 Nicolay Way Unit 1 Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$1,925	$1.34	6d	1	1.23mi
233 Orville Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,850	$1.62	45d	1	1.27mi
1460 Hadwick Dr Essex, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	661	$1,308	$1.98	6d	1	1.32mi
706 Seawall Rd Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,900	$1.71	6d	1	1.35mi
303 Endsleigh Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	23d	1	1.35mi
1542 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,900	$1.55	23d	1	1.43mi
4 Essex Ave Unit A Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	25d	1	1.43mi
1516 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1144	$2,100	$1.84	23d	1	1.45mi
1103 Country Terrace Rd Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	544	$1,308	$2.40	6d	1	1.45mi
1300 Middleborough Rd Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	578	$1,365	$2.36	45d	1	1.47mi
1513 Aldeney Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1324	$2,295	$1.73	25d	1	1.48mi
832 N Marlyn Ave Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	45d	1	1.48mi
710h Snowberry Ct Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	544	$1,382	$2.54	6d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $158,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $158,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,148 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,148 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$2,148
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $3,843
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$922
• After-tax cash flow: $5,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+531.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $158,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1973-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $25,031 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,148 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.