212 N Kellie Ave · Kirbyville, TX 75956

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,973 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

$50/sqft · 16% below area Est $118k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this charming 2/2 Victorian-style home, featuring an inviting front porch ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The home highlights beautiful architectural details, including standout front bay windows, a formal living room, formal dining room, and a spacious sunroom that adds versatility to the layout. Situated on a . 52-acre corner lot in the heart of Kirbyville, the property offers a fenced yard, storage building, and both small and large carports for ample parking. A Generac generator provides added peace of mind. PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD AS IS.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Fenced yard
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• BAY WINDOWS
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS SUNROOM
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,133 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Kirbyville CISD (rural): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #274 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.81%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,435
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -16.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
502 W Lavielle St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (-7%)	23mo	$94,500	$52	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $10,150
• Equity at exit: $35,020

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $38,263
• Equity at exit: $47,500

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75956

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,554/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $979

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $99,000 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Step into this charming 2/2 Victorian-style home, featuring an inviting front porch ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The home highlights beautiful architectural details, including standout front bay windows, a formal living room, formal dining room, and a spacious sunroom that adds versatility to the layout. Situated on a . 52-acre corner lot in the heart of Kirbyville, the property offers a fenced yard, storage building, and both small and large carports for ample parking. A Generac generator provides added peace of mind. PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD AS IS.

16. 2026-04-09
    status Active 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Step into this charming 2/2 Victorian-style home, featuring an inviting front porch ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The home highlights beautiful architectural details, including standout front bay windows, a formal living room, formal dining room, and a spacious sunroom that adds versatility to the layout. Situated on a . 52-acre corner lot in the heart of Kirbyville, the property offers a fenced yard, storage building, and both small and large carports for ample parking. A Generac generator provides added peace of mind. PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD AS IS.

17. 2026-04-03
    status Pending 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Step into this charming 2/2 Victorian-style home, featuring an inviting front porch ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The home highlights beautiful architectural details, including standout front bay windows, a formal living room, formal dining room, and a spacious sunroom that adds versatility to the layout. Situated on a . 52-acre corner lot in the heart of Kirbyville, the property offers a fenced yard, storage building, and both small and large carports for ample parking. A Generac generator provides added peace of mind. PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD AS IS.

18. 2026-03-27
    listed $119,000 Active 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Step into this charming 2/2 Victorian-style home, featuring an inviting front porch ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The home highlights beautiful architectural details, including standout front bay windows, a formal living room, formal dining room, and a spacious sunroom that adds versatility to the layout. Situated on a . 52-acre corner lot in the heart of Kirbyville, the property offers a fenced yard, storage building, and both small and large carports for ample parking. A Generac generator provides added peace of mind. PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD AS IS.

19. 2017-05-18
    soldstatus
20. 2017-05-17
    soldstatus 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Grand home in the heart of Kirbyville, This gem has old bones but tones of potential! 2/2 w/ both formal living and dining there is the possibility of a third bedroom as well as room for expansion. Just under 2,000 sqft this wonderful home has 12ft ceilings throughout, Double fire place, as well as original hardwood floors! Nestled on 6 city lots with detached 3 car carport with storage area as well as a large covered slab for entertaining! Tons of potential; Come see for your self!!!

21. 2017-04-09
    listed $70,000 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Grand home in the heart of Kirbyville, This gem has old bones but tones of potential! 2/2 w/ both formal living and dining there is the possibility of a third bedroom as well as room for expansion. Just under 2,000 sqft this wonderful home has 12ft ceilings throughout, Double fire place, as well as original hardwood floors! Nestled on 6 city lots with detached 3 car carport with storage area as well as a large covered slab for entertaining! Tons of potential; Come see for your self!!!

22. 2014-06-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,554 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,554 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,554
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,075
• − Management: −$1,075
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$46
• After-tax cash flow: $1,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kirbyville CISD
• NCES district ID: 4825710
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,141
• Composite: 38.14/100
• National rank: #4269
• State rank: #274 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kirbyville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1133
• US rank: #20020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kirbyville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,085

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 161.736
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+41.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $99,000 BBOR
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — BBOR
• 2026-04-03 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $119,000 BBOR
• 2017-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-05-17 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2017-04-09 Listed $70,000 BBOR
• 2014-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,554 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.