14641 Highway 522 · Cumberland, KY 40823

$75,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,505 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1950 21 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home in the beautiful Appalachian Mountains located in Cumberland KY just minutes from Harlan KY. This home offers peace and quite with plenty of land to hunt, farm, and homestead. This home sets on 20 acres and would make a perfect home with a little TLC. Call or text today to make this home yours!

Key facts

• 20 acres
• 20.86 acre lot
• Built 1950

Tags

• 20 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Large lot (approximately 20.86 acres)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Sewer available
• Home design: House; One and one-half stories; Rural subdivision; Property faces unspecified direction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Built with traditional construction materials
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Fenced yard (type: Other); Mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present (other type); Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Unfinished basement (utility/storage space)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#263 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harlan County (rural): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #149 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland Elementary School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #469 of 676 statewide, top 70%, 449 students, 84% FRL); Harlan County High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 997 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 65% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.7%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.41%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $21,488
• Equity at exit: $12,133

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $61,573
• Equity at exit: $8,128

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40823

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $237/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $562

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $557	-5% $536	+0% $515	+5% $493	+10% $472
Rent	-10% $419	-5% $467	+0% $515	+5% $563	+10% $611
Rate	-1.0pp $552	-0.5pp $534	base $515	+0.5pp $495	+1.0pp $475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 320-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $237 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $645 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$408/yr (+$34/mo · 172.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$237
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,165
• − Management: −$1,165
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,240
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,258
• After-tax cash flow: $4,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlan County
• NCES district ID: 2102540
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -24.00%
• Median HH income: $26,283
• Composite: 20.13/100
• National rank: #8642
• State rank: #149 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #263
• US rank: #12948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,907

Population outlook (Harlan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,324 people
• By 2030: 22,492 · -7.5%
• By 2040: 19,052 · -21.7%
• By 2050: 16,060 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 10,525 · -56.7%
• By 2100: 6,933 · -71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Harlan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.2) · D 11.6% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -76.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.2 2020: R+71.8 2016: R+72.2 2012: R+64.0 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.72%
• Current HPI: 191.1023
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $75,000 ImagineMLS