10650 Trade Post · Lucerne Valley, CA 92356

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1957 0.57 ac lot $263/sqft · at area comps Est $267k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this Charming Turn-Key Home in a great location of Lucerne Valley! This home is situated on over a half an acre located just off of Highway 18, near shopping and restaurants. Upon arriving, you're greeted by beautiful laminate wood flooring sprawling throughout the living areas highlighted by Cathedral Ceilings. The open layout concept leads to the roomy kitchen open to the dining area and living room. This home features 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Bathrooms, spacious Enclosed Patio, attached 1 Car Garage, RV Access and a Shed! Refreshed with new flooring, paint, fixtures (and plenty more to list!) throughout this home is ready for you to Enjoy!

Key facts

• 0.57 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size reported from assessor's data (large lot range); Total units: 1; No common walls
• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; 1 garage/parking space
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: House; Single-story; Entry at front; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Wood construction; Shingle roof; Built year source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Yard; Chain link fence; Covered porch/patio; Has view; Access via county road with unpaved road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Eating area
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Wall heater; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: One-level home with front entry; Covered porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Lucerne Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,358 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lucerne Valley Unified (rural): math 22% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,155 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucerne Valley Elementary (608 students, 91% FRL); Lucerne Valley Middle (137 students, 92% FRL); Lucerne Valley High (274 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $265k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,771 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,973
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -0.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $133,124
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.40×
• Total profit: $400,788
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92356

• Home prices YoY: 20.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,230/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,220

Max offer price $233,977

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-26	-5% $-101	+0% $-176	+5% $-251	+10% $-326
Rent	-10% $-333	-5% $-255	+0% $-176	+5% $-97	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-42	-0.5pp $-108	base $-176	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $265,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $265,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $265,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $265,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-04-28
   listed $265,000 Active 1075-char remark
10. 2018-08-22
    soldstatus $160,000 Closed Sale 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    Welcome to this Charming Turn-Key Home in a great location of Lucerne Valley! This home is situated on over a half an acre located just off of Highway 18, near shopping and restaurants. Upon arriving, you're greeted by beautiful laminate wood flooring sprawling throughout the living areas highlighted by Cathedral Ceilings. The open layout concept leads to the roomy kitchen open to the dining area and living room. This home features 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Bathrooms, spacious Enclosed Patio, attached 1 Car Garage, RV Access and a Shed! Refreshed with new flooring, paint, fixtures (and plenty more to list!) throughout this home is ready for you to Enjoy! Association Amenities: None # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: CC, OBNONE Frontage Type: Dirt Road Lot Location Type: Standard Location # of Attached Spaces: 1 # of Detached Spaces: 0

11. 2018-08-22
    soldstatus $160,000

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    Welcome to this Charming Turn-Key Home in a great location of Lucerne Valley! This home is situated on over a half an acre located just off of Highway 18, near shopping and restaurants. Upon arriving, you're greeted by beautiful laminate wood flooring sprawling throughout the living areas highlighted by Cathedral Ceilings. The open layout concept leads to the roomy kitchen open to the dining area and living room. This home features 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Bathrooms, spacious Enclosed Patio, attached 1 Car Garage, RV Access and a Shed! Refreshed with new flooring, paint, fixtures (and plenty more to list!) throughout this home is ready for you to Enjoy! Association Amenities: None # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: CC, OBNONE Frontage Type: Dirt Road Lot Location Type: Standard Location # of Attached Spaces: 1 # of Detached Spaces: 0

12. 2018-08-22
    soldstatus $160,000

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    Welcome to this Charming Turn-Key Home in a great location of Lucerne Valley! This home is situated on over a half an acre located just off of Highway 18, near shopping and restaurants. Upon arriving, you're greeted by beautiful laminate wood flooring sprawling throughout the living areas highlighted by Cathedral Ceilings. The open layout concept leads to the roomy kitchen open to the dining area and living room. This home features 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Bathrooms, spacious Enclosed Patio, attached 1 Car Garage, RV Access and a Shed! Refreshed with new flooring, paint, fixtures (and plenty more to list!) throughout this home is ready for you to Enjoy! Association Amenities: None # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: CC, OBNONE Frontage Type: Dirt Road Lot Location Type: Standard Location # of Attached Spaces: 1 # of Detached Spaces: 0

13. 2018-07-25
    status Pending Sale 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Welcome to this Charming Turn-Key Home in a great location of Lucerne Valley! This home is situated on over a half an acre located just off of Highway 18, near shopping and restaurants. Upon arriving, you're greeted by beautiful laminate wood flooring sprawling throughout the living areas highlighted by Cathedral Ceilings. The open layout concept leads to the roomy kitchen open to the dining area and living room. This home features 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Bathrooms, spacious Enclosed Patio, attached 1 Car Garage, RV Access and a Shed! Refreshed with new flooring, paint, fixtures (and plenty more to list!) throughout this home is ready for you to Enjoy!

14. 2018-05-22
    listed $169,000 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    Welcome to this Charming Turn-Key Home in a great location of Lucerne Valley! This home is situated on over a half an acre located just off of Highway 18, near shopping and restaurants. Upon arriving, you're greeted by beautiful laminate wood flooring sprawling throughout the living areas highlighted by Cathedral Ceilings. The open layout concept leads to the roomy kitchen open to the dining area and living room. This home features 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Bathrooms, spacious Enclosed Patio, attached 1 Car Garage, RV Access and a Shed! Refreshed with new flooring, paint, fixtures (and plenty more to list!) throughout this home is ready for you to Enjoy! Association Amenities: None # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: CC, OBNONE Frontage Type: Dirt Road Lot Location Type: Standard Location # of Attached Spaces: 1 # of Detached Spaces: 0

15. 2018-05-22
    listed $169,000

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    Welcome to this Charming Turn-Key Home in a great location of Lucerne Valley! This home is situated on over a half an acre located just off of Highway 18, near shopping and restaurants. Upon arriving, you're greeted by beautiful laminate wood flooring sprawling throughout the living areas highlighted by Cathedral Ceilings. The open layout concept leads to the roomy kitchen open to the dining area and living room. This home features 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Bathrooms, spacious Enclosed Patio, attached 1 Car Garage, RV Access and a Shed! Refreshed with new flooring, paint, fixtures (and plenty more to list!) throughout this home is ready for you to Enjoy! Association Amenities: None # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: CC, OBNONE Frontage Type: Dirt Road Lot Location Type: Standard Location # of Attached Spaces: 1 # of Detached Spaces: 0

16. 2005-03-22
    soldstatus $155,000
17. 2005-03-22
    soldstatus $155,000
18. 2004-06-11
    listed $139,900
19. 2004-06-11
    historical
20. 2003-05-09
    soldstatus $35,311
21. 1982-06-30
    soldstatus $45,000
22. 1982-06-30
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,230 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,230 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone D · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,230
• − Insurance: −$2,139
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$6,786
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,629
• After-tax cash flow: $-479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucerne Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600015
• Math proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $28,341
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #12969
• State rank: #1155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lucerne Valley

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1358
• US rank: #26994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lucerne Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,665

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.34%
• Current HPI: 440.6077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+488.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $265,000 CRMLS
• 2018-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-22 Sold (MLS) $160,000 CRMLS
• 2018-08-22 Sold (MLS) $160,000 CRMLS
• 2018-07-25 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-05-22 Listed $169,000 CRMLS
• 2018-05-22 Listed $169,000 CRMLS
• 2005-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-22 Sold (MLS) $155,000 CRMLS
• 2004-06-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2004-06-11 Listed $139,900 CRMLS
• 2003-05-09 Sold (MLS) $35,311 CRMLS
• 1982-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1982-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,230 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.