1820 Pelican E · Pelican Bay, TX 76020

$230,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · Manufactured public records · 172 Days on market

Built 2018 0.31 ac lot Est $229k · at est. ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Multiple offers received. This roomy 2018 Palm Harbor is sitting on 2 large lots minutes from the lake, and features two living areas and an office. Luxury vinyl flooring throughout, wood-burning fireplace with stone façade, and ceiling fans. The kitchen boasts a large, beautiful island, eat-in dining, and custom cabinets. Spacious primary bedroom that has a double sink vanity, a garden tub, and a separate shower. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are jack and jill bath with separate vanities. Home sits on a large . 31-acre lot with a 2-car detached garage, a fenced backyard with a shed, and an extended concrete patio. The home has been beautifully maintained. For specific details of rent-to-own opti

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential (Mobile Home)
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage with double doors, garage faces front
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Cable available; Municipal utility district: No
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; One level
• Construction: Built in 2018
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.312 acres); Subdivision: Pelican Bay Tenth Filing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; High speed internet available
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 6.4% in Pelican Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#917 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Azle ISD (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 466 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 45% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.92%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,140
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1820 Pelican E	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,010 (0%)	1mo	$230,000	$114	99
1870 Long Cir	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,941 (-3%)	15mo	$239,900	$124	72
1643 Sheila Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-8%)	13mo	$139,500	$75	54
1313 Sheri Ln N	0.65mi	4/2.5	1,830 (-9%)	1mo	$229,900	$126	52
1272 Lindale Ter	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,016 (+0%)	13mo	$175,000	$87	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-5,146
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $31,948
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76020

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,333/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,894

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $663	-5% $598	+0% $532	+5% $467	+10% $402
Rent	-10% $330	-5% $431	+0% $532	+5% $634	+10% $735
Rate	-1.0pp $648	-0.5pp $591	base $532	+0.5pp $473	+1.0pp $412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
448 Kaufman Dr Azle, TX	4.0	3.0	2091	$2,500	$1.20	0d	1	1.30mi
312 Blanco Dr Azle, TX	4.0	2.0	2082	$2,495	$1.20	0d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-04-15
   price $230,000
4. 2025-11-28
   listed $250,000 Active
5. 2025-11-27
   historical
6. 2025-07-11
   listed $250,000 Active
7. 2025-03-26
   price $240,000
8. 2025-03-05
   listed $250,000 Active
9. 2025-03-03
   historical
10. 2024-10-11
    price $255,500
11. 2024-09-02
    listed $265,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,333 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,876/yr (+$156/mo · 80.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,333
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,465
• − Management: −$2,465
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $2,830
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$679
• After-tax cash flow: $5,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Azle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809200
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,473
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4900
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pelican Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #917
• US rank: #16376

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pelican Bay, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,602
• Household income: $87,298
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 433.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.72%
• Current HPI: 287.155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-28 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-05 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-10-11 Price Changed $255,500 NTREIS
• 2024-09-02 Listed $265,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+36.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,333 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.