415 S Rustin St · Sioux City, IA 51106

$154,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1900 Est $138k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bd 1 bath with finished dormer room. Located on S Rustin.

Key facts

• Built 1900
• Listed 15 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($204/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Sioux City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#138 in IA, #2,544 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Sioux City Community School District (urban): math 54% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #264 of 289 in IA (top 91%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Woodbury County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $155k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $130,142 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2716 Leech Ave	0.08mi	2/2.0	912 (+6%)	2mo	$124,000	$136	81
809 S Cecelia St	0.34mi	2/2.0	878 (+2%)	1mo	$145,000	$165	77
101 Logan St	0.38mi	2/1.0	876 (+1%)	7mo	$133,500	$152	74
115 Rustin St	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	812 (-6%)	6mo	$145,000	$179	69
3212 Indiana Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	846 (-2%)	7mo	$135,000	$160	69
1119 S Cecelia St	0.56mi	2/1.0	894 (+4%)	1mo	$167,500	$187	67
912 S Alice St	0.36mi	2/1.0	802 (-7%)	10mo	$144,500	$180	63
3130 Dace Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0	744 (-14%)	10mo	$174,900	$235	55
3514 Macomb Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0	924 (+7%)	2mo	$70,000	$76	54
301 Logan St	0.51mi	2/1.0	951 (+10%)	6mo	$64,900	$68	54
114 Cecelia St	0.39mi	2/1.0	958 (+11%)	14mo	$140,000	$146	52
3608 Correctionville Rd	0.56mi	2/1.0	960 (+11%)	16mo	$135,000	$141	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-24,044
• Equity at exit: $23,104

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-19,613
• Equity at exit: $13,397

Cash invested: $43,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51106

• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,608/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,280

Max offer price $154,950

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,738
• Closing costs: $4,648
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
700 S Linn St Sioux City, IA	2.0	2.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	43d	1	0.26mi
1301 S Westcott St Apt 04 Sioux City, IA	2.0	1.0	793	$850	$1.07	43d	1	0.65mi
302 Jones St #403 Sioux City, IA	2.0	2.0	872	$1,750	$2.01	43d	1	1.48mi
860 River View Dr South Sioux City, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$1,252	$1.44	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $154,950 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,950 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,950 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,950 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,950 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,950 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,950 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,950 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,950 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,950 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 59-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $154,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,608 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,020 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$412/yr (+$34/mo · 25.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,680
• − Property taxes: −$1,608
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,249
• − Management: −$1,249
• − Depreciation: −$4,508
• Taxable loss: −$2,452
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$588
• After-tax cash flow: $792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sioux City Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1926400
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,967
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2371
• State rank: #264 of 289 in IA

Livability — Sioux City

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #2544

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sioux City, IA
• County: Woodbury County · 51,789 people
• City population: 51,789
• Metro: Sioux City, IA-NE-SD
• Population (ZIP): 28,592
• Household income: $78,434
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 891.0

Population outlook (Woodbury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 103,226 people
• By 2030: 103,060 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 102,533 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 102,788 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 107,227 · +3.9%
• By 2100: 113,980 · +10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Iranian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Woodbury

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: -0.5pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+19.9 2012: R+0.2 2008: R+0.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.61%
• Current HPI: 229.6733
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sioux City, IA-NE-SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+98.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $154,950 FSBO.com
• 2023-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,608 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.