4408 State Route 9 · Warrensburg, NY 12885

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1900 1.46 ac lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Property is zoned mixed use and has 1.46 acres. Great location for a business. Wonderful road frontage and exposure on the way to Route 28. The property housed a dog kennel. Property being sold as is. Cash only.

Key facts

• Zoned mixed use
• 1.46 acres
• Road frontage

Tags

• ZONED MIXED USE
• 1.46 ACRES
• ROAD FRONTAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.6% in Warrensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#823 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Warrensburg Central School District (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #552 of 755 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Warrensburg Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 361 students, 58% FRL); Warrensburg Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 302 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.29%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $63,178
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.27×
• Total profit: $173,036
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12885

• Home prices YoY: 19.6%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,779/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $902

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $312	-5% $288	+0% $264	+5% $240	+10% $215
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $215	+0% $264	+5% $312	+10% $361
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $285	base $264	+0.5pp $242	+1.0pp $219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-03
   price $85,000
3. 2025-11-02
   price $99,000
4. 2025-09-18
   listed $114,900 Active
5. 2020-07-31
   historical
6. 2019-05-25
   listed $114,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,779 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,779 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,779
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,186
• − Management: −$1,186
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,020
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$485
• After-tax cash flow: $2,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrensburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629910
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,828
• Composite: 41.15/100
• National rank: #7424
• State rank: #552 of 755 in NY

Livability — Warrensburg

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #823
• US rank: #15925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,531

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 60.30%
• Current HPI: 368.3803
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-26.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $85,000 Global MLS
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $99,000 Global MLS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $114,900 Global MLS
• 2020-07-31 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2019-05-25 Listed $114,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,779 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.