1004 N Winnebago St St · Rockford, IL 61103

$65,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,853 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1900 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vinyl siding, some hardwood floors, large deck on back, newer furnace, 24 hour show notice. Owner will meet you there for showings. Short sale three properties for sale, same owner and lender-could be purchased as package deal with MLS # 201400884 and 201400885-stairs to attic NO MORE SHOWINGS

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $780 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 20.7% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: R K Welsh Elem School (math 7% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,719 of 2,056 statewide, top 84%, 435 students, 0% FRL); West Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #627 of 665 statewide, top 95%, 849 students, 0% FRL); Guilford High School (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #345 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 2,071 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $65k implies a 550% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.40%
• DSCR: 3.29
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,064
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1025 Grant Ave	0.36mi	4/1.5	1,680 (-9%)	1mo	$163,000	$97	67
1027 Grant Ave	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,700 (-8%)	0mo	$177,000	$104	67
706 John St	0.29mi	4/3.0	1,716 (-7%)	2mo	$230,000	$134	66
809 N Winnebago St	0.21mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,943 (+5%)	11mo	$71,000	$37	66
844 Haskell Ave	0.20mi	4/1.5	2,079 (+12%)	11mo	$118,000	$57	61
417 Reynolds St	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,781 (-4%)	8mo	$170,000	$95	56
1520 N Rockton Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,623 (-12%)	5mo	$159,000	$98	53
528 Horsman St	0.44mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,624 (-12%)	6mo	$86,400	$53	48
1520 Grant Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,658 (-10%)	3mo	$102,000	$62	46
1614 Grace St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,707 (-8%)	4mo	$151,000	$88	43
330 King St	0.66mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-9%)	5mo	$90,000	$54	42
407 N Avon St	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,121 (+14%)	9mo	$143,750	$68	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $47,487
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.88×
• Total profit: $143,369
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61103

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,187/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $780

Break-even live

Break-even rent $591

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
728 N Winnebago St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	13d	1	0.26mi
1146 Fairview Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.5	1344	$1,250	$0.93	20d	1	0.74mi
303 Forest Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	43d	1	0.88mi
418 Orchard Park Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,500	$1.22	13d	1	0.99mi
1510 School St Unit 1 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,200	$0.86	43d	1	1.05mi
2308 Fremont St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,600	$1.21	43d	1	1.15mi
207 N Central Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.5	1296	$1,500	$1.16	13d	1	1.20mi
3007 Huffman Blvd Rockford, IL	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,450	$1.12	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2025-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-01
   listed $65,000 Active
3. 2014-07-18
   soldstatus $10,000 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Vinyl siding, some hardwood floors, large deck on back, newer furnace, 24 hour show notice. Owner will meet you there for showings. Short sale three properties for sale, same owner and lender-could be purchased as package deal with MLS # 201400884 and 201400885-stairs to attic NO MORE SHOWINGS

4. 2014-02-25
   listed $10,000 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Vinyl siding, some hardwood floors, large deck on back, newer furnace, 24 hour show notice. Owner will meet you there for showings. Short sale three properties for sale, same owner and lender-could be purchased as package deal with MLS # 201400884 and 201400885-stairs to attic NO MORE SHOWINGS

5. 2011-10-27
   historical
6. 2011-09-26
   listed New
7. 2006-06-20
   soldstatus $56,000
8. 2003-09-10
   soldstatus $39,000
9. 2003-08-08
   soldstatus $25,000
10. 1998-01-27
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$144/yr (+$12/mo · 12.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,187
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,515
• − Management: −$1,515
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $8,859
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,126
• After-tax cash flow: $7,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 22,869
• Household income: $51,161
• Rent vs Own: 48.4% rent · 51.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1402.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 25% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.02%
• Current HPI: 215.8559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.11%
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+282.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-02 Pending — NWIAR
• 2025-04-01 Listed $65,000 NWIAR
• 2014-07-18 Sold (MLS) $10,000 NWIAR
• 2014-02-25 Listed $10,000 NWIAR
• 2011-10-27 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-26 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1998-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,187 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.