1281 E Burnt Tree Dr · Mobile, AL 36695

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,239 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1987 7,013 sqft lot Est $198k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property located in a great neighborhood with plenty of space to enjoy inside and out! Step into the inviting living room featuring beautiful vaulted ceilings that create an open and airy feel perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a private en-suite bath for added comfort and convenience. Outside, you’ll love the large backyard complete with a new fence installed in 2024 and a beautiful deck with Trex boards added in 2021 — ideal for gatherings, grilling, or quiet evenings outdoors. Additional updates include a new outside HVAC unit in 2023 and a new inside unit in 2024, giving peace of mind for ye

Key facts

• Beautiful deck
• Large backyard
• New inside unit

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• NEW FENCE
• BEAUTIFUL DECK
• NEW OUTSIDE HVAC UNIT
• NEW INSIDE UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available to the property from I-10 and Schillinger Rd
• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported
• HOA & community: No HOA transfer fees; No community features

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; 2 parking spaces; Open parking available
• Utilities: Electric service: Alabama Power; Public water and sewer (not specified further)
• Home design: Single-story attached property; One level; Resale condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area reported by seller
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Less than 1 acre lot; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with attached bath; Primary bedroom located on the 1st floor
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric cooling (central air)
• Interior features: High ceilings; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elsie Collier Elementary School (math 35% / reading 61%, grade D, #135 of 627 statewide, top 22%, 743 students, 55% FRL); Bernice J Causey Middle School (math 17% / reading 51%, grade F, #98 of 257 statewide, top 38%, 1,418 students, 53% FRL); Baker High School (math 25% / reading 28%, grade F, #107 of 305 statewide, top 36%, 2,491 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 67% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 557 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $165k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,527 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.30%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1311 Woodstock Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,282 (+4%)	13mo	$202,000	$158	80
1151 Seven Hills Curv S	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-3%)	8mo	$170,000	$142	78
1111 Valley View Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,191 (-4%)	4mo	$210,000	$176	77
1345 Camden Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+10%)	6mo	$190,000	$139	73
1261 Comstock Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,361 (+10%)	8mo	$207,500	$152	71
1068 Seven Hills Curv	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,163 (-6%)	12mo	$186,000	$160	67
1071 Coke Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,134 (-8%)	11mo	$200,000	$176	62
1120 Abilene Dr W	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+12%)	11mo	$218,000	$157	58
871 Hale Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-5%)	12mo	$211,500	$180	48
9301 Airport Blvd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+12%)	7mo	$235,000	$169	46
9491 Burnt Ash Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+15%)	12mo	$234,500	$165	42
9475 Ironwood Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,403 (+13%)	7mo	$205,000	$146	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-30,315
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-36,517
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36695

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 557
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $700/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,500

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $220	-5% $163	+0% $107	+5% $51	+10% $-6
Rent	-10% $-22	-5% $42	+0% $107	+5% $172	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $207	-0.5pp $158	base $107	+0.5pp $55	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1345 Baker Ct Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.09mi
791 Copperfield Dr E Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,495	$1.19	45d	1	0.76mi
725 Copperfield Dr E Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,500	$1.03	15d	1	0.84mi
9650 Trailwood Dr S Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,275	$1.14	15d	1	0.86mi
9760 Royal Woods Dr N Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,395	$1.24	45d	1	1.09mi
2212 Summer Xing Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,800	$1.36	45d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $199,000 Active
2. 2021-05-20
   soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $700 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$116/yr (+$10/mo · 16.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$700
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$516
• After-tax cash flow: $1,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 52,690
• Household income: $76,040
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1619.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 23% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.28%
• Current HPI: 193.1651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.41%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+20.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-05-25 Contingent — BCAR
• 2026-05-20 Listed $199,000 BCAR
• 2021-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $700 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.