4629 Caverns Dr · Poinciana, FL 34758

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,647 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2009 5,489 sqft lot Est $339k · 12% under $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. WOW! BEST DEAL on the Market!! Own a Meticulously Maintained, move-in ready 4 BED + 2 BATH + 2-Car-Garage + Fully-Fenced Backyard Home in a Beautiful Neighborhood at the INCREDIBLE price of $300K!!! Exciting updates that bring peace of mind ( & discounted homeowner's insurance rates) are: NEW ROOF (2023), NEW HVAC (2025) AND a New Water Heater (2025)! NO Flood Zone (Flood Zone X), Brand New Interior Paint throughout (2026), an Entire Home Water Filtration System, All Kitchen Appliances, and Washer/Dryer are INCLUDED!!! Enjoy a smart and welcoming floorplan where 3 bedrooms and a separate indoor laundry room greet you at the front of the home, whi

Key facts

• New hvac
• New water heater
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• NEW WATER HEATER
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• FRUIT PRODUCING TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Artemis Lifestyles (monthly HOA $69; association fees required; quarterly association fee shown); Community pool; Community playground; Community sidewalks; Pets allowed (cats and dogs OK)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Home faces west
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as completed condition
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Playground on property; Sidewalk; Lot includes fruit trees; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Water softener; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen and family room combined; Living room and dining room combined; Tray ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Blinds, drapes and window rods; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($40/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 1,068 students, 51% FRL); Poinciana High School (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #470 of 667 statewide, top 71%, 2,455 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 604 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,615 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,282
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4758 Rockvale Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+2%)	2mo	$320,000	$190	68
4816 Rockvale Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (+1%)	4mo	$325,000	$196	66
2802 Glendive Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (+1%)	11mo	$310,000	$187	64
3088 Pointe Place Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,698 (+3%)	6mo	$368,000	$217	58
2919 Foraker Way	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,825 (+11%)	9mo	$406,000	$222	58
4813 Ashurst St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (-11%)	2mo	$320,000	$217	53
4947 Harold Stanley Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,770 (+8%)	6mo	$374,900	$212	52
4643 Doral Park Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-6%)	4mo	$320,000	$206	51
4591 Sandhurst St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,563 (-5%)	4mo	$319,900	$205	50
4432 Freedom Rd	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,862 (+13%)	9mo	$545,000	$293	38
4665 Doral Park Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (+11%)	8mo	$305,000	$167	36
3101 Linton Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (+11%)	10mo	$349,900	$192	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-53,735
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-67,481
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34758

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 604
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,466 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,132/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,462

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4600 Caverns Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1972	$2,200	$1.12	11d	1	0.10mi
4519 Trinity Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1727	$2,398	$1.39	2d	12	0.29mi
4729 Greycliff Prairie Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,100	$1.15	4d	1	0.42mi
4781 Rockvale Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1972	$2,171	$1.10	8d	1	0.45mi
2905 Sunstone Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1985	$1,900	$0.96	8d	1	0.55mi
2875 Sunstone Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1985	$2,000	$1.01	24d	1	0.58mi
2855 Moonstone Bnd Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1784	$1,850	$1.04	8d	1	0.61mi
2626 Ham Brown Rd Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1936	$3,011	$1.55	3d	16	0.65mi
4606 Sandhurst St Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,049	$1.10	24d	1	0.80mi
2653 Broadwing St Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1903	$2,700	$1.42	15d	1	0.85mi
4352 Fox Glen Loop Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2221	$2,195	$0.99	24d	1	0.86mi
4784 Marcos Cir Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,439	$1.28	15d	1	0.88mi
2906 Sweetspire Cir Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2221	$2,195	$0.99	18d	1	0.88mi
2582 Grey Hawk Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1662	$2,650	$1.59	4d	1	0.90mi
2578 Grey Hawk Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1662	$2,450	$1.47	20d	1	0.90mi
2578 Grey Hawk Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1662	$2,500	$1.50	4d	1	0.90mi
2574 Grey Hawk Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1662	$2,500	$1.50	4d	1	0.90mi
2570 Grey Hawk Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1662	$2,500	$1.50	4d	1	0.91mi
2566 Grey Hawk Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1662	$2,500	$1.50	4d	1	0.91mi
2562 Grey Hawk Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1662	$2,650	$1.59	4d	1	0.92mi
2571 Grey Hawk Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1662	$2,500	$1.50	16d	1	0.92mi
4986 Thames St Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1744	$2,500	$1.43	24d	1	1.00mi
4967 Pall Mall St Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1741	$2,500	$1.44	4d	1	1.07mi
2449 Grey Hawk Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,450	$1.47	16d	1	1.07mi
2443 Grey Hawk Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,450	$1.47	16d	1	1.08mi
2533 Old Kent Cir Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1888	$2,000	$1.06	15d	1	1.29mi
2362 Barton Bay Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,950	$1.06	24d	1	1.33mi
4544 Big Island Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2091	$2,400	$1.15	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $300,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $300,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    price $300,000
11. 2026-05-08
    listed $325,000 Active
12. 2026-04-13
    historical
13. 2026-04-07
    price $318,900
14. 2026-03-13
    price $325,000
15. 2026-02-28
    price $333,000
16. 2026-02-14
    price $334,000
17. 2026-01-17
    status Active
18. 2025-11-28
    listed $335,000 Active
19. 2008-04-29
    soldstatus $630,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,132 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$358/yr (+$30/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,132
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,368
• − Management: −$2,368
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,133
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,232
• After-tax cash flow: $1,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,768
• Household income: $66,339
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1302.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Black 22% Two or more races 16% White 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 36% Cuban 3% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.53%
• Current HPI: 295.8928
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-52.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $318,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $333,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $334,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-28 Listed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $630,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,132 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.