598 US Route 202 · Winthrop, ME 04265

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 734 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1952 4.30 ac lot $54/sqft · 40% below area Est $67k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

No interior or exterior access is permitted, drive-by only. Trespassing is a criminal offense. Tax-acquired property--this 4.3-acre parcel, just 25 minutes from both Augusta and Auburn, is a fresh start in a convenient location off Route 202. With ample space, existing mobile home and well, it's a possible opportunity for your next venture.

Key facts

• 4.3-acre parcel
• Well
• Existing mobile home

Tags

• 4.3-ACRE PARCEL
• EXISTING MOBILE HOME
• WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 2.0% in Winthrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• RSU 02 (rural): math 83% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #52 of 112 in ME (top 46%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $834 of equity ($276 loan paydown + $558 appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.11%
• DSCR: 4.07
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,651
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -40.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
598 US Route 202	0.00mi	2/1.0	734 (0%)	0mo	$39,900	$54	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $42,549
• Equity at exit: $14,457

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.81×
• Total profit: $98,451
• Equity at exit: $19,875

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04265

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $994/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $391

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Active 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   No interior or exterior access is permitted, drive-by only. Trespassing is a criminal offense. Tax-acquired property--this 4.3-acre parcel, just 25 minutes from both Augusta and Auburn, is a fresh start in a convenient location off Route 202. With ample space, existing mobile home and well, it's a possible opportunity for your next venture.

2. 2026-04-16
   historical 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   No interior or exterior access is permitted, drive-by only. Trespassing is a criminal offense. Tax-acquired property--this 4.3-acre parcel, just 25 minutes from both Augusta and Auburn, is a fresh start in a convenient location off Route 202. With ample space, existing mobile home and well, it's a possible opportunity for your next venture.

3. 2026-04-15
   listed $39,900 Active 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   No interior or exterior access is permitted, drive-by only. Trespassing is a criminal offense. Tax-acquired property--this 4.3-acre parcel, just 25 minutes from both Augusta and Auburn, is a fresh start in a convenient location off Route 202. With ample space, existing mobile home and well, it's a possible opportunity for your next venture.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $994 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $994 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$994
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,814
• After-tax cash flow: $5,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 02
• NCES district ID: 2314776
• Math proficiency: 83% ▲ 56.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▲ 34.00%
• Median HH income: $52,565
• Composite: 72.04/100
• National rank: #208
• State rank: #52 of 112 in ME

Livability — Winthrop

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #8395

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,153
• Population (ZIP): 645

Population outlook (Kennebec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,421 people
• By 2030: 111,852 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 103,757 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 95,710 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 78,172 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 59,500 · -48.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Romanian 12% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kennebec

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 50.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.8pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Current HPI: 207.7241
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Relisted — MREIS
• 2026-04-16 Delisted — MREIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $39,900 MREIS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $994 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.