1188 W Calle Alcazar · Green Valley, AZ 85622

$224,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,117 sqft · Condo public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1981

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

It's ready for YOU! Recently painted in/out; roof completely re-done on the carport; new tile on back patio and kitchen updated within last 5 years! Not to mention the incredible views!

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool and spa; Community golf and fitness center; HOA maintains road; Association fee covers common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 covered/carport space
• Security: Wrought iron security door; Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Water from local water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Single-story; Faces south
• Construction: Slump block construction; Built-up reflective roof
• Exterior features: Covered paver patio; Decorative gravel and shrubs; Subdivided lot; North/South exposure; Elevated lot; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Engineered wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Furnished; Skylights; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors; Wrought iron security door
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in kitchen area; Laundry located in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $368 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $224k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,124 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.46%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,614
• Equity at exit: $66,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $51,615
• Equity at exit: $81,897

Cash invested: $62,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85622

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,961 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,208/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,732

Max offer price $224,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $308	-5% $244	+0% $181	+5% $117	+10% $54
Rent	-10% $26	-5% $103	+0% $181	+5% $258	+10% $336
Rate	-1.0pp $294	-0.5pp $238	base $181	+0.5pp $123	+1.0pp $64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,000
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2807 S Calle Trafalgar Unit NA Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	966	$1,650	$1.71	24d	1	0.09mi
1098 W Camino Sagasta Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1117	$2,600	$2.33	24d	1	0.13mi
1430 W Camino Lucientes Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,500	$1.46	24d	1	0.22mi
2780 S Camino Iturbide Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	2d	1	0.30mi
1400 Placita Apache Unit X Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	987	$1,500	$1.52	24d	1	0.46mi
1230 W Camino del Pato Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$3,200	$3.02	17d	1	0.85mi
3689 S Avenida de Encino Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	3d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-04-05
    listed $224,000 Active
15. 2016-06-27
    soldstatus $84,000 Closed 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    It's ready for YOU! Recently painted in/out; roof completely re-done on the carport; new tile on back patio and kitchen updated within last 5 years! Not to mention the incredible views!

16. 2016-06-27
    soldstatus $84,000

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    It's ready for YOU! Recently painted in/out; roof completely re-done on the carport; new tile on back patio and kitchen updated within last 5 years! Not to mention the incredible views!

17. 1992-10-21
    soldstatus $58,500
18. 1990-06-01
    soldstatus $62,000
19. 1987-04-01
    soldstatus $61,500
20. 1982-03-01
    soldstatus $54,565

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,208 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,478 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$271/yr (+$23/mo · 22.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$1,208
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable loss: −$1,622
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$389
• After-tax cash flow: $2,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• City population: 25,381
• Population (ZIP): 6,345

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 225.8384
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+310.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Listed $224,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-27 Sold (MLS) $84,000 MLSSAZ
• 1992-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records
• 1990-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1987-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records
• 1982-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $54,565 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,208 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.