The Davenport II Plan · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$306,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,878 sqft · SingleFamily · 633 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Davenport II offers expansive single level living space with so much flexibility. When entering the front of the home you'll have the choice of a living room, study or dining room. The spacious kitchen opens up to the family room with a large kitchen island, perfect to gather round. If you don't need 4 bedrooms, you may choose to build the home with 3 and use the flex area for a hobby space. If you need more bedrooms or just wish to have a loft, you may choose to add the optional bonus which can be configured as a large entertaining area or as a loft with additional 5th bedroom and full bathroom.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 632 days

🏗️ New construction. The $306,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $344,672.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $307k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 633 days — a 12% lower offer ($270k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,151 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 633 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,672
• List price: $306,990
• Delta: -10.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2413 Sequoia Grove Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (-3%)	1mo	$305,000	$167	78
9822 Garnet Springs Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,879 (+0%)	3mo	$260,000	$138	74
9911 Garnet Springs Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,879 (+0%)	10mo	$270,000	$144	72
2614 Matterhorn Mist Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,099 (+12%)	10mo	$309,000	$147	67
9902 Smokey Quartz Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,930 (+3%)	7mo	$249,900	$129	62
2442 Goddard Green Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,809 (-4%)	2mo	$279,000	$154	58
2445 Abbot Brook Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,070 (+10%)	10mo	$309,900	$150	44
9430 Peridot Green Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,659 (-12%)	0mo	$175,000	$105	44
9914 Pearl Creek Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,659 (-12%)	1mo	$235,000	$142	44
2409 Abbot Brook Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,070 (+10%)	10mo	$324,900	$157	43
9930 Opal Rock Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,659 (-12%)	2mo	$235,000	$142	41
2429 Abbot Brook Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,641 (-13%)	4mo	$210,000	$128	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-72,441
• Equity at exit: $51,392

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-102,852
• Equity at exit: $29,801

Cash invested: $96,508 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.7 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $325,000 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 37 d
• This list price: 34% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,826 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,807
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$431 /mo · $5,170/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,015

Max offer price $323,009

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $88	-5% $-31	+0% $-150	+5% $-269	+10% $-388
Rent	-10% $-373	-5% $-261	+0% $-150	+5% $-38	+10% $74
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-62	base $-150	+0.5pp $-239	+1.0pp $-330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,168
• Closing costs: $10,340
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	92d	1	0.33mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	92d	7	0.41mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	0d	8	0.41mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,836	$1.15	21d	1	0.62mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,726	$1.57	30d	1	0.72mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1770	$2,579	$1.46	0d	17	0.77mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	92d	1	0.87mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,276	$0.87	48d	1	0.99mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,121	$1.14	0d	1	1.05mi
9314 Eckert Rd Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	2309	$2,999	$1.30	38d	1	1.06mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,225	$1.43	8d	1	1.17mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	92d	1	1.20mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,950	$1.59	16d	1	1.41mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	92d	1	1.43mi
10539 Dolce Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2258	$2,391	$1.06	62d	1	1.47mi
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,700	$1.74	31d	1	1.49mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	56d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $306,990 Active 633 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $306,990 Active 631 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $306,990 Active 630 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $306,990 Active 629 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $306,990 Active 628 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $306,990 Active 625 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $306,990 Active 623 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $306,990 Active 622 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $306,990 Active 620 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $306,990 Active 618 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $306,990 Active 617 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $306,990 Active 616 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $306,990 Active 615 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $306,990 Active 614 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $306,990 Active 612 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $306,990 Active 611 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $306,990 Active 610 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $306,990 Active 609 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $306,990 Active 607 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $306,990 Active 606 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $306,990 Active 605 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $306,990 Active 604 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $306,990 Active 603 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $306,990 Active 601 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $306,990 Active 600 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $306,990 Active 599 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $306,990 Active 598 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $306,990 Active 597 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $306,990 Active 596 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $306,990 Active 595 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $306,990 Active 594 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $306,990 Active 593 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $306,990 Active 592 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $306,990 Active 591 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $306,990 Active 590 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $306,990 Active 588 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $306,990 Active 586 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $306,990 Active 585 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $306,990 Active 582 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $306,990 Active 581 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $306,990 Active 580 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $306,990 Active 579 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $306,990 Active 577 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $306,990 Active 576 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $306,990 Active 573 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $306,990 Active 572 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $306,990 Active 571 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $306,990 Active 568 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $306,990 Active 567 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $306,990 Active 566 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,307
• − Property taxes: −$5,170
• − Insurance: −$1,723
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,713
• − Management: −$2,713
• − Depreciation: −$10,027
• Taxable loss: −$7,745
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,859
• After-tax cash flow: $62/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and smart home integration to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Energy-efficient systems can lower utility costs and attract eco-conscious buyers ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $306,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $316,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-13 Listed $322,990 Zillow