2834 W Palm Vista St · Flowing Wells, AZ 85705

$254,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1999 4,835 sqft lot Est $289k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced as a fix-up; lots of potential. Seller will consider an FHA 203K offer. Great area, close to shopping, etc., Nice floorplan with large kitchen, separate dining plus spacious breakfast room. Split master bedroom plan is great for privacy. Nice spacious home to raise a family with 1904 sq. ft. See it today! Priced to sell. DOGS, please call listing agent to show.

Key facts

• 4,835 sq ft lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - MU
• HOA & community: Street lights in community

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Wood fencing; Paved road access; Street lights in community

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas Pac heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Gas range; Microwave; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($595/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Flowing Wells Unified District (4405) (suburban): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 249 in AZ (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Laguna Elementary School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #898 of 1,109 statewide, top 83%, 394 students, 92% FRL); Flowing Wells Junior High School (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 818 students, 74% FRL); Flowing Wells High School (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #208 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 1,694 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,980/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 4240% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,036 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.83%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,408
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2752 W Diamond St	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,848 (-3%)	0mo	$85,000	$46	80
2622 W Kimberley St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-12%)	13mo	$255,775	$152	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-43,508
• Equity at exit: $38,006

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-54,681
• Equity at exit: $22,039

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85705

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $864/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,918

Max offer price $254,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5841 N Belbrook Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,200	$1.36	16d	1	0.78mi
2356 W Ian Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,200	$1.38	1d	1	0.88mi
1925 W River Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,076	$1.98	1d	32	1.13mi
5416 N Bramble Brook Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,850	$1.25	3d	1	1.17mi
5750 N La Cholla Blvd Tucson, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1453	$2,172	$1.49	1d	11	1.17mi
5132 Prairie Clover Trl Tucson, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1604	$2,286	$1.42	1d	13	1.37mi
3530 W Ethan Crossing Ln Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1515	$2,200	$1.45	23d	1	1.40mi
1680 W Green Thicket Way Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $254,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $254,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $864 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,682 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$819/yr (+$68/mo · 94.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$864
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$3,870
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$929
• After-tax cash flow: $1,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flowing Wells Unified District (4405)
• NCES district ID: 0403010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,361
• Composite: 21.69/100
• National rank: #8271
• State rank: #143 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flowing Wells

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5288

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flowing Wells, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,700
• Household income: $37,194
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4240.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.31%
• Current HPI: 283.0647
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+919.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $254,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-07 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MLSSAZ
• 2009-06-15 Listed $75,000 MLSSAZ
• 2003-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-12 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MLSSAZ
• 2002-05-07 Listed $25,000 MLSSAZ
• 1986-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $864 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.