Plan 1361 Plan · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$184,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · SingleFamily · 209 Days on market

Poor condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Den * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite and bedroom 2 * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $184,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $181,948.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,795 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,948
• List price: $184,995
• Delta: 1.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7214 Brooklea Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+14%)	1mo	$223,882	$145	73
6514 Track Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+7%)	18mo	$149,000	$102	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $48,583
• Equity at exit: $93,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $138,260
• Equity at exit: $154,875

Cash invested: $50,946 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$227 /mo · $2,729/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,592

Max offer price $181,948

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,487
• Closing costs: $5,458
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,995 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,995 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,995 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,995 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,995 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,995 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,995 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,995 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $184,995 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,995 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,995 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,995 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,995 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-04-11
    price $189,995 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite and bedroom 2 * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

15. 2026-03-28
    price $187,995 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite and bedroom 2 * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

16. 2026-03-24
    price $185,995 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite and bedroom 2 * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

17. 2026-02-06
    price $184,995 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite and bedroom 2 * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

18. 2025-12-12
    price $194,995 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite and bedroom 2 * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

19. 2025-11-22
    status Active 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite and bedroom 2 * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

20. 2025-11-22
    price $204,995 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite and bedroom 2 * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

21. 2025-11-05
    historical 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite and bedroom 2 * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

22. 2025-11-04
    listed $214,995 Active 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite and bedroom 2 * Extra storage space * Open floor plan * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Community park * Pickleball court * Pond

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,192
• − Property taxes: −$2,729
• − Insurance: −$910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,820
• − Management: −$1,820
• − Depreciation: −$5,293
• Taxable loss: −$17
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4
• After-tax cash flow: $2,885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property is in poor condition with extensive repairs and maintenance needed, including fencing and landscaping. Significant improvements are required to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major fencing — Appears old and worn
• Major landscaping — No visible landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and fencing — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both roof and siding — Improves the home's overall appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
fencing · Appears old and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · No visible landscaping	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and fencing — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both roof and siding — Improves the home's overall appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $189,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $187,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $185,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $184,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $194,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $204,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-05 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Listed $214,995 Zillow