875 NY RT 43 · East Nassau, NY 12168

$123,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1852 1.45 ac lot ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Lots of potential to modernize this Classic 2-story Spacious Farmhouse with 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, large kitchen, sunroom, sitting room, 2 wood stoves, living/dining room, lots of storage. Appliances being Sold As Is. 1 car garage with storage, outbuilding/garage, 2 large barns with storage, plenty of off street parking, all sitting on approximately 1.44 acres. Private yard overlooking woods. Property on #873 with 2 barns & garage/outbuilding being sold with house. New Pictures Coming Soon!!! Very Good Condition

Key facts

• 1.45 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1852

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.1% in East Nassau — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,099 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Berlin Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #412 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($850 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1852 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $115,620 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1852 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.99%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,920
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52 Black River Rd	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (+8%)	23mo	$330,000	$220	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $79,864
• Equity at exit: $110,808

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.54×
• Total profit: $225,326
• Equity at exit: $238,962

Cash invested: $34,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12168

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,275/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,227

Max offer price $123,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $270	-5% $235	+0% $201	+5% $166	+10% $131
Rent	-10% $84	-5% $142	+0% $201	+5% $259	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $263	-0.5pp $232	base $201	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,750
• Closing costs: $3,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2023-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2021-12-14
   status Pending
3. 2019-11-13
   status Pend (Under Cntr)
4. 2018-01-14
   status Pend (Under Cntr)
5. 2018-01-10
   historical
6. 2017-12-06
   price $123,000
7. 2017-11-21
   status Active
8. 2017-11-13
   status Pend (Under Cntr)
9. 2017-11-13
   historical
10. 2017-10-11
    listed $125,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,275 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,275 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,890
• − Property taxes: −$3,275
• − Insurance: −$615
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − Depreciation: −$3,578
• Taxable income: $568
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$136
• After-tax cash flow: $2,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berlin Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604620
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,335
• Composite: 41.5/100
• National rank: #3455
• State rank: #412 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Nassau

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1099
• US rank: #22410

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime D- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,723
• Population (ZIP): 1,691

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 7% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.83%
• Current HPI: 245.5017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2023-03-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2021-12-14 Pending — Global MLS
• 2019-11-13 Pending — Global MLS
• 2018-01-14 Pending — Global MLS
• 2018-01-10 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2017-12-06 Price Changed $123,000 Global MLS
• 2017-11-21 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2017-11-13 Pending — Global MLS
• 2017-11-13 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2017-10-11 Listed $125,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,275 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.