191 Church St · Little Falls, NY 13365

$58,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,137 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1880 3,484 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome To 191 Church St! This Parcel Features: - Public Sewer. - Public Water. - Laundry Room On The First Floor. - Detached One Car Garage, Alongside A Driveway. Property Needs Work. Cash. As Is. Assignment Of Contract.

Key facts

• Public sewer
• Driveway
• Laundry room

Tags

• PUBLIC SEWER
• PUBLIC WATER
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• DETACHED ONE CAR GARAGE
• DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 8.0% in Little Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#440 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Falls City School District (rural): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #492 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($407 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $58,016 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.26%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,851
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
240 Church St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+8%)	7mo	$155,000	$126	74
172 Furnace St	0.14mi	3/0.5	1,222 (+8%)	6mo	$14,000	$11	74
13 Lewis St	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-4%)	9mo	$135,000	$124	73
21 Summit Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,141 (+0%)	24mo	$117,000	$103	65
34 Arthur St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,288 (+13%)	13mo	$159,000	$123	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $55,139
• Equity at exit: $53,062

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.76×
• Total profit: $144,440
• Equity at exit: $114,430

Cash invested: $16,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13365

• Home prices YoY: 9.9%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,965/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $629

Max offer price $58,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,725
• Closing costs: $1,767
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-10-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-12
   listed $58,900 Active
3. 2021-04-13
   historical
4. 2019-09-18
   listed $79,900
5. 2010-04-19
   soldstatus $61,500
6. 2005-06-06
   soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,965 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,965 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,299
• − Property taxes: −$1,965
• − Insurance: −$294
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,043
• − Management: −$1,043
• − Depreciation: −$1,713
• Taxable income: $3,677
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$882
• After-tax cash flow: $3,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617460
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,445
• Composite: 36.22/100
• National rank: #4724
• State rank: #492 of 590 in NY

Livability — Little Falls

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #440
• US rank: #7681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Little Falls, NY
• Population (ZIP): 8,545

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.04%
• Current HPI: 300.9696
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+13.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-10 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $58,900 Global MLS
• 2021-04-13 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2019-09-18 Listed $79,900 CNYIS
• 2010-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records
• 2005-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,965 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.