15452 Woody Haven Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$294,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,185 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,749 sqft lot Est $297k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* New Section Now Open! * Love where you live in Granger Pines in Conroe, TX! Now featuring Legend’s NEW Smart Home package and Signature Design Collection! The Sienna floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 4 bedrooms (1 down, 3 up), 3 bathrooms, game room, and a 2-car garage! The home has it all, including a first-floor Guest Suite and vinyl plank flooring. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42' cabinets, silestone countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Upstairs offers a private retreat for the primary and secondary bedrooms! Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with silestone countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• 42 cabinets
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR GUEST SUITE
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 42 CABINETS
• SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $298,640

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (The Sienna plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,185

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, The Sienna plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $287,679 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.62%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16827 Country Roots Ave	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,173 (-0%)	1mo	$306,990	$141	88
15611 Country Charm Trl	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,084 (-5%)	1mo	$322,258	$155	82
16767 Country Roots Ave	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,034 (-7%)	0mo	$310,990	$153	76
14154 Granger Pointe	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,255 (+3%)	1mo	$269,540	$120	64
16866 Needlepoint Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,049 (-6%)	2mo	$279,212	$136	52
14143 Granger Pointe Ln	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-9%)	2mo	$252,790	$128	51
14305 Grey Pointe	0.67mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-9%)	0mo	$269,790	$136	51
14308 Grey Pointe Ct	0.68mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-9%)	1mo	$264,640	$134	50
16812 Needlepoint Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,026 (-7%)	1mo	$269,765	$133	48
16981 Hazelnut Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+12%)	2mo	$334,900	$137	42
14300 Ash Tree Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+12%)	1mo	$324,900	$133	41
14337 Ash Tree Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+12%)	1mo	$319,900	$131	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-35,386
• Equity at exit: $43,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-12,140
• Equity at exit: $25,505

Cash invested: $82,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,649

Max offer price $294,990

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,748
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	1d	13	0.76mi
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	43d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,990 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,990 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $294,990 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,640 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,640 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,640 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $298,640 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $298,640 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $298,640 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $298,640 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $298,640 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $298,640 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,640 Active 9 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,524
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,762
• − Management: −$2,762
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$2,655
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $2,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 25 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It's ready for immediate occupancy and would be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps home in good condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps home in good condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B