8191 Buckthorn Cir · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$141,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 962 sqft · Manufactured public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1984 5,226 sqft lot Est $128k · 10% over $313/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THE LAND IS INCLUDED Savanna Club ON the water Estate Sale HOA Monthly $313.13 includes TV and Internet Savanna Club is located in the heart of Port St. Lucie, Florida. Come and enjoy a resort lifestyle, 55+ community, with amenities that include our 18-hole golf course, 10,000 sq ft Performing Arts Center, three fully staffed clubhouses, a Tennis & Fitness Center and endless exciting social events that will fill your days and evenings. This golf community is only twenty minutes from the Atlantic Ocean, and is centrally located between both Ft. Lauderdale and Orlando for plenty of vacation options. We invite you to come and check out all of the wonderful amenities as the Savanna Club

Key facts

• Social events
• 18 hole golf course
• Golf community

Tags

• 18 HOLE GOLF COURSE
• PERFORMING ARTS CENTER
• FULLY STAFFED CLUBHOUSES
• TENNIS & FITNESS CENTER
• SOCIAL EVENTS
• GOLF COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $141k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $141k).
• Recommended offer: $124k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Savanna Ridge Elementary School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 452 students, 75% FRL); Port St. Lucie High School (math 21% / reading 43%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 1,748 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $975 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $141k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.20%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,946
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2975 Fiddlewood Cir	0.19mi	2/2.0	936 (-3%)	5mo	$207,500	$222	83
2999 Saltbush Ct	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	8mo	$176,000	$169	68
4 Angelita	0.46mi	2/2.0	950 (-1%)	15mo	$38,000	$40	64
8506 Redbay Ct	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,036 (+8%)	6mo	$193,000	$186	61
66 Spanish Way	0.59mi	2/2.0	984 (+2%)	14mo	$28,900	$29	57
46 Spanish Way	0.64mi	2/2.0	984 (+2%)	13mo	$15,000	$15	56
3 W Caribbean	0.54mi	2/2.0	950 (-1%)	21mo	$15,000	$16	55
8513 Redbay Ct	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	21mo	$138,000	$133	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-11,677
• Equity at exit: $21,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-761
• Equity at exit: $12,191

Cash invested: $39,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$739
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,445/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$313
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,664

Max offer price $141,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,250
• Closing costs: $4,230
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	13d	15	0.40mi
3784 Sapodilla Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,300	$2.05	23d	1	0.73mi
1810 SE Pinewood Trl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,055	$2.03	13d	7	0.76mi
1811 SE Walton Lakes Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,926	$1.72	13d	6	0.80mi
1131 SE Parrish Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0	902	$2,000	$2.22	23d	1	0.97mi
1455 SE Colchester Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,795	$1.95	13d	1	1.17mi
1516 SE Royal Green Cir #202 Port St Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	921	$2,100	$2.28	23d	1	1.28mi
1503 SE Royal Green Cir Unit V104 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$1,750	$2.02	23d	1	1.28mi
1520 SE Royal Green Cir Unit K-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	23d	1	1.30mi
1565 SE Royal Green Cir #108 Port St Lucie, FL	1.0	1.0	705	$1,595	$2.26	13d	1	1.33mi
1524 SE Royal Green Cir Unit Q102 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$1,800	$2.08	13d	1	1.33mi
1550 SE Royal Green Cir Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,850	$2.37	13d	1	1.33mi
1562 SE Royal Green Cir Unit T-204 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,900	$2.43	23d	1	1.35mi
1566 SE Royal Green Cir #203 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$2,000	$2.56	13d	1	1.40mi
1500 SE Tiffany Club Pl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,922	$2.15	13d	7	1.43mi
1537 SE Royal Green Cir Unit E204 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,750	$1.98	13d	1	1.44mi
1536 SE Royal Green Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,750	$2.24	23d	1	1.48mi
1550 SE Royal Green Cir Unit P-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,750	$2.24	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $313 · $3,756/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternetgym

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
3. 2025-11-01
   price $141,000
4. 2025-10-24
   price $137,000
5. 2025-10-11
   price $141,000
6. 2025-08-17
   price $145,000
7. 2025-07-17
   listed $152,500 Active
8. 2023-07-03
   status Active
9. 2023-02-23
   status Pending
10. 2023-02-10
    status Active
11. 2022-11-14
    listed $175,000 Active
12. 2022-09-07
    status Pending
13. 2022-09-07
    historical
14. 2022-09-06
    listed $150,000 Active
15. 1997-04-14
    soldstatus $56,000
16. 1993-04-23
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,445 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,445 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,898
• − Property taxes: −$2,445
• − Insurance: −$705
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − HOA: −$3,756
• − Depreciation: −$4,102
• Taxable income: $476
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$114
• After-tax cash flow: $2,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+101.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-11 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $141,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $137,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $141,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-17 Price Changed $145,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $152,500 Beaches MLS
• 2023-07-03 Relisted — MCRTC
• 2023-02-23 Pending — MCRTC
• 2023-02-10 Relisted — MCRTC
• 2022-11-14 Listed $175,000 MCRTC
• 2022-09-07 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2022-09-07 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2022-09-06 Listed $150,000 Beaches MLS
• 1997-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1993-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,445 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.