194 Debra Dr · Shadybrook, TX 75757

$185,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1988 9,148 sqft lot $169/sqft · 17% below area Est $223k · 17% under $25/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a quiet, dead-end road in a peaceful, lake-friendly community at Lake Palestine, this beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features thoughtful upgrades throughout - including new windows, a tankless water heater, and an updated heat pump - providing efficiency and peace of mind for years to come. With approximately 1,092 square feet and a unique 1.5-story layout, this home stands out with its character and design. The open-concept living space is bright and inviting, highlighted by a tray ceiling and easy flow into the kitchen and dinette. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances and modern fixtures that highlight the elevated updates throughout. The primary bedroom offers plenty of space to unwind with a private ensuite with dual sinks, a dual shower head, and ample storage. Upstairs you'll find the secluded second bedroom with plenty of space and piney views. Step outside and enjoy both a welcoming front deck and a back patio - perfect for enjoying lakeside living. A storage building adds extra functionality, while the surrounding community enhances the lifestyle with access to a pool, park, clubhouse, and boat ramp just minutes away. Conveniently located between Hwy 155 and Hwy 69, you’ll enjoy quick access to Tyler while still soaking in the laid-back lake atmosphere. Zoned to Bullard school district, this move-in-ready home is an excellent option for a full-time residence, weekend escape or investment opportunity. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 1.5-story layout
• Updated heat pump
• Remodeled home

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• NEW WINDOWS
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• UPDATED HEAT PUMP
• 1.5-STORY LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-214/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,997
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -17.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-31,062
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-28,303
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,989/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,673

Max offer price $181,850

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Pecan Dr Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,650	$1.21	43d	1	1.10mi
394 Red Bud Cir Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	43d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $185,000 Pending 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active Option Contract 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Active Option Contract 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $185,000 Active Option Contract 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,000 Active Option Contract 68 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Active Option Contract 67 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $185,000 Active Option Contract 66 DOM
8. 2026-04-09
   price $185,000 1504-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1504 chars)

   Situated on a quiet, dead-end road in a peaceful, lake-friendly community at Lake Palestine, this beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features thoughtful upgrades throughout - including new windows, a tankless water heater, and an updated heat pump - providing efficiency and peace of mind for years to come. With approximately 1,092 square feet and a unique 1.5-story layout, this home stands out with its character and design. The open-concept living space is bright and inviting, highlighted by a tray ceiling and easy flow into the kitchen and dinette. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances and modern fixtures that highlight the elevated updates throughout. The primary bedroom offers plenty of space to unwind with a private ensuite with dual sinks, a dual shower head, and ample storage. Upstairs you'll find the secluded second bedroom with plenty of space and piney views. Step outside and enjoy both a welcoming front deck and a back patio - perfect for enjoying lakeside living. A storage building adds extra functionality, while the surrounding community enhances the lifestyle with access to a pool, park, clubhouse, and boat ramp just minutes away. Conveniently located between Hwy 155 and Hwy 69, you’ll enjoy quick access to Tyler while still soaking in the laid-back lake atmosphere. Zoned to Bullard school district, this move-in-ready home is an excellent option for a full-time residence, weekend escape or investment opportunity. Schedule your showing today!

9. 2026-04-09
   price $185,000 1504-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1504 chars)

   Situated on a quiet, dead-end road in a peaceful, lake-friendly community at Lake Palestine, this beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features thoughtful upgrades throughout - including new windows, a tankless water heater, and an updated heat pump - providing efficiency and peace of mind for years to come. With approximately 1,092 square feet and a unique 1.5-story layout, this home stands out with its character and design. The open-concept living space is bright and inviting, highlighted by a tray ceiling and easy flow into the kitchen and dinette. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances and modern fixtures that highlight the elevated updates throughout. The primary bedroom offers plenty of space to unwind with a private ensuite with dual sinks, a dual shower head, and ample storage. Upstairs you'll find the secluded second bedroom with plenty of space and piney views. Step outside and enjoy both a welcoming front deck and a back patio - perfect for enjoying lakeside living. A storage building adds extra functionality, while the surrounding community enhances the lifestyle with access to a pool, park, clubhouse, and boat ramp just minutes away. Conveniently located between Hwy 155 and Hwy 69, you’ll enjoy quick access to Tyler while still soaking in the laid-back lake atmosphere. Zoned to Bullard school district, this move-in-ready home is an excellent option for a full-time residence, weekend escape or investment opportunity. Schedule your showing today!

10. 2026-04-09
    price $185,000

    Show marketing remark (1504 chars)

    Situated on a quiet, dead-end road in a peaceful, lake-friendly community at Lake Palestine, this beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features thoughtful upgrades throughout - including new windows, a tankless water heater, and an updated heat pump - providing efficiency and peace of mind for years to come. With approximately 1,092 square feet and a unique 1.5-story layout, this home stands out with its character and design. The open-concept living space is bright and inviting, highlighted by a tray ceiling and easy flow into the kitchen and dinette. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances and modern fixtures that highlight the elevated updates throughout. The primary bedroom offers plenty of space to unwind with a private ensuite with dual sinks, a dual shower head, and ample storage. Upstairs you'll find the secluded second bedroom with plenty of space and piney views. Step outside and enjoy both a welcoming front deck and a back patio - perfect for enjoying lakeside living. A storage building adds extra functionality, while the surrounding community enhances the lifestyle with access to a pool, park, clubhouse, and boat ramp just minutes away. Conveniently located between Hwy 155 and Hwy 69, you’ll enjoy quick access to Tyler while still soaking in the laid-back lake atmosphere. Zoned to Bullard school district, this move-in-ready home is an excellent option for a full-time residence, weekend escape or investment opportunity. Schedule your showing today!

11. 2026-03-25
    listed $189,900 Active 1504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1504 chars)

    Situated on a quiet, dead-end road in a peaceful, lake-friendly community at Lake Palestine, this beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features thoughtful upgrades throughout - including new windows, a tankless water heater, and an updated heat pump - providing efficiency and peace of mind for years to come. With approximately 1,092 square feet and a unique 1.5-story layout, this home stands out with its character and design. The open-concept living space is bright and inviting, highlighted by a tray ceiling and easy flow into the kitchen and dinette. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances and modern fixtures that highlight the elevated updates throughout. The primary bedroom offers plenty of space to unwind with a private ensuite with dual sinks, a dual shower head, and ample storage. Upstairs you'll find the secluded second bedroom with plenty of space and piney views. Step outside and enjoy both a welcoming front deck and a back patio - perfect for enjoying lakeside living. A storage building adds extra functionality, while the surrounding community enhances the lifestyle with access to a pool, park, clubhouse, and boat ramp just minutes away. Conveniently located between Hwy 155 and Hwy 69, you’ll enjoy quick access to Tyler while still soaking in the laid-back lake atmosphere. Zoned to Bullard school district, this move-in-ready home is an excellent option for a full-time residence, weekend escape or investment opportunity. Schedule your showing today!

12. 2026-03-25
    listed $189,900 Active 1504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1504 chars)

    Situated on a quiet, dead-end road in a peaceful, lake-friendly community at Lake Palestine, this beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features thoughtful upgrades throughout - including new windows, a tankless water heater, and an updated heat pump - providing efficiency and peace of mind for years to come. With approximately 1,092 square feet and a unique 1.5-story layout, this home stands out with its character and design. The open-concept living space is bright and inviting, highlighted by a tray ceiling and easy flow into the kitchen and dinette. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances and modern fixtures that highlight the elevated updates throughout. The primary bedroom offers plenty of space to unwind with a private ensuite with dual sinks, a dual shower head, and ample storage. Upstairs you'll find the secluded second bedroom with plenty of space and piney views. Step outside and enjoy both a welcoming front deck and a back patio - perfect for enjoying lakeside living. A storage building adds extra functionality, while the surrounding community enhances the lifestyle with access to a pool, park, clubhouse, and boat ramp just minutes away. Conveniently located between Hwy 155 and Hwy 69, you’ll enjoy quick access to Tyler while still soaking in the laid-back lake atmosphere. Zoned to Bullard school district, this move-in-ready home is an excellent option for a full-time residence, weekend escape or investment opportunity. Schedule your showing today!

13. 2026-03-25
    listed $189,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (1504 chars)

    Situated on a quiet, dead-end road in a peaceful, lake-friendly community at Lake Palestine, this beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features thoughtful upgrades throughout - including new windows, a tankless water heater, and an updated heat pump - providing efficiency and peace of mind for years to come. With approximately 1,092 square feet and a unique 1.5-story layout, this home stands out with its character and design. The open-concept living space is bright and inviting, highlighted by a tray ceiling and easy flow into the kitchen and dinette. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances and modern fixtures that highlight the elevated updates throughout. The primary bedroom offers plenty of space to unwind with a private ensuite with dual sinks, a dual shower head, and ample storage. Upstairs you'll find the secluded second bedroom with plenty of space and piney views. Step outside and enjoy both a welcoming front deck and a back patio - perfect for enjoying lakeside living. A storage building adds extra functionality, while the surrounding community enhances the lifestyle with access to a pool, park, clubhouse, and boat ramp just minutes away. Conveniently located between Hwy 155 and Hwy 69, you’ll enjoy quick access to Tyler while still soaking in the laid-back lake atmosphere. Zoned to Bullard school district, this move-in-ready home is an excellent option for a full-time residence, weekend escape or investment opportunity. Schedule your showing today!

14. 2025-09-25
    price $200,000
15. 2025-08-01
    price $235,000
16. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus
17. 2023-04-17
    soldstatus
18. 2023-03-24
    listed $189,900
19. 2022-04-28
    soldstatus
20. 2006-08-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,989 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,989
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$798
• After-tax cash flow: $584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shadybrook

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #18541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shadybrook, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $185,000 GTAR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $185,000 LAAR
• 2026-03-25 Listed $189,900 LAAR
• 2026-03-25 Listed $189,900 GTAR
• 2026-03-25 Listed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $200,000 GTAR
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $235,000 GTAR
• 2023-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-17 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2023-03-24 Listed $189,900 GTAR
• 2022-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,989 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.