Yucca III A Plan · Bridge City, TX 77630

$258,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,851 sqft · SingleFamily · 864 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open floor plan Four bedrooms, two and a half baths Recessed can lighting Double master vanity Separate master shower Walk-in master closet

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 864 days

🏗️ New construction. The $258,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,496.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (37.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#251 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Orangefield ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #217 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Orangefield El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 873 students, 39% FRL); Orangefield J H (math 42% / reading 48%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 434 students, 34% FRL); Orangefield H S (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 549 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 864 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,767 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 864 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.86%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 17.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,496
• List price: $258,990
• Delta: -25.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-60,335
• Equity at exit: $118,809

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-59,464
• Equity at exit: $158,025

Cash invested: $97,299 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,618 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,822
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,212/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-1,124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,040

Max offer price $184,923

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-883	-5% $-1,003	+0% $-1,124	+5% $-1,244	+10% $-1,364
Rent	-10% $-1,251	-5% $-1,187	+0% $-1,124	+5% $-1,060	+10% $-996
Rate	-1.0pp $-949	-0.5pp $-1,035	base $-1,124	+0.5pp $-1,214	+1.0pp $-1,305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,874
• Closing costs: $10,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $258,990 Active 864 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $258,990 Active 861 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $258,990 Active 860 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $258,990 Active 859 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $258,990 Active 858 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $258,990 Active 856 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $258,990 Active 855 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $258,990 Active 853 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $258,990 Active 852 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $258,990 Active 851 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $257,990 Active 851 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $257,990 Active 850 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $257,990 Active 846 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $257,990 Active 845 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $257,990 Active 844 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $257,990 Active 843 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $257,990 Active 842 DOM
18. 2024-10-07
    price $257,990 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Open floor plan Four bedrooms, two and a half baths Recessed can lighting Double master vanity Separate master shower Walk-in master closet

19. 2024-05-01
    price $255,990 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Open floor plan Four bedrooms, two and a half baths Recessed can lighting Double master vanity Separate master shower Walk-in master closet

20. 2024-02-09
    listed $253,990 Active 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Open floor plan Four bedrooms, two and a half baths Recessed can lighting Double master vanity Separate master shower Walk-in master closet

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 44% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,465
• − Property taxes: −$5,212
• − Insurance: −$1,737
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − Depreciation: −$10,109
• Taxable loss: −$20,218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,852
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orangefield ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833780
• Math proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,682
• Composite: 40.77/100
• National rank: #3647
• State rank: #217 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bridge City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #251
• US rank: #5948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 10,112
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $257,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $255,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-09 Listed $253,990 Zillow