2209 Sandyridge Dr · Carlsbad, NM 88220

$73,600

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 1999 9,047 sqft lot $51/sqft · 71% below area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Could make good starter home. Spacious rooms. Exceptionally large living room. Nice sized back yard. Great big Driveway. Auctions Ends 04/23/2026

Key facts

• 9,047 sq ft lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 78 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $879 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#20 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, schools D.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $509 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,184 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.20%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,000
• List price: $73,600
• Delta: -71.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $44,097
• Equity at exit: $10,974

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $110,611
• Equity at exit: $6,364

Cash invested: $20,608 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88220

• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$386
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$92 /mo · $1,104/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $879

Break-even live

Break-even rent $644

Max offer price $73,600

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $930	-5% $905	+0% $879	+5% $854	+10% $828
Rent	-10% $740	-5% $810	+0% $879	+5% $949	+10% $1,018
Rate	-1.0pp $916	-0.5pp $898	base $879	+0.5pp $860	+1.0pp $841

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,400
• Closing costs: $2,208
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
302 N Lake St Carlsbad, NM	2.0	1.0	932	$1,500	$1.61	45d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-14
   price $73,600 145-char remark

   Show marketing remark (145 chars)

   Could make good starter home. Spacious rooms. Exceptionally large living room. Nice sized back yard. Great big Driveway. Auctions Ends 04/23/2026

2. 2026-03-12
   listed $79,900 Active 145-char remark

   Show marketing remark (145 chars)

   Could make good starter home. Spacious rooms. Exceptionally large living room. Nice sized back yard. Great big Driveway. Auctions Ends 04/23/2026

3. 2011-03-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,123
• − Property taxes: −$1,104
• − Insurance: −$368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$2,141
• Taxable income: $9,972
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,393
• After-tax cash flow: $8,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #7925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, NM
• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 39,828
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $78,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 46% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.72%
• Current HPI: 114.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $73,600 NMMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $79,900 NMMLS
• 2011-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $32 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.