6411 Prospect Oaks Pkwy · Houston, TX 77449

$354,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2025 4,832 sqft lot $115/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW NEIGHBORHOOD IN ELYSON - CY-FAIR ISD. Brookfield Residential's Verbena plan welcomes you home with 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a downstairs powder room. This two-story home features an elegant half-wall to separate the front entry from the downstairs living and dining areas. Multiple windows let in lots of natural light. The well-appointed kitchen has plenty of counter space, and don't miss the generous understairs kitchen pantry for storing all of your cooking basics and holiday dishes. Upstairs, you'll find all four bedrooms, including the primary. The primary bath features a good-sized walk-in closet. Enjoy Elyson’s new Lakeside Landing amenity center, featuring 2 pools,

Key facts

• Abundant windows
• Community center
• Under stair pantry

Tags

• TWO STORY LAYOUT
• ABUNDANT WINDOWS
• UNDER STAIR PANTRY
• NEWEST AMENITY CENTER
• COMMUNITY CENTER
• GREAT LAWN

🏗️ New construction. The $354,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $384,384.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-502 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rowe Middle (math 26% / reading 44%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,310 students, 80% FRL); Cypress Park H S (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 2,960 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 43% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 762 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,300 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.59%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $384,384
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6407 Prospect Oaks Pkwy	0.01mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,047 (-3%)	3mo	$359,990	$176	87
22726 Norcrest Hills Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,190 (+4%)	1mo	$445,000	$203	85
22623 Elyson Falls Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (+4%)	4mo	$395,000	$180	82
22746 Norcrest Hills Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,190 (+4%)	4mo	$450,000	$205	80
22607 Potterstone Peak Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,274 (+8%)	3mo	$514,555	$226	77
22702 Norcrest Hills Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,341 (+11%)	2mo	$426,780	$182	74
22619 Elyson Falls Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,906 (-10%)	3mo	$370,000	$194	73
6426 Wildwood Pines Ln	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,428 (+15%)	2mo	$415,000	$171	72
22734 Norcrest Hills Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,341 (+11%)	3mo	$396,780	$169	71
6206 Milbridge Creek Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (-4%)	2mo	$365,000	$180	57
23007 Birchwood Valley Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,037 (-4%)	3mo	$390,000	$191	56
6822 Barrington Creek Trce	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,307 (+9%)	2mo	$357,500	$155	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-73,877
• Equity at exit: $87,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-111,003
• Equity at exit: $88,038

Cash invested: $107,628 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 762
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,873 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,016
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$480 /mo · $5,766/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $-502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,508

Max offer price $311,784

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-236	-5% $-369	+0% $-502	+5% $-635	+10% $-767
Rent	-10% $-729	-5% $-615	+0% $-502	+5% $-388	+10% $-275
Rate	-1.0pp $-308	-0.5pp $-404	base $-502	+0.5pp $-601	+1.0pp $-703

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,096
• Closing costs: $11,532
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22700 Elyson Falls Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1658	$2,925	$1.76	0d	1	0.24mi
5710 Fresh View Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2313	$2,495	$1.08	3d	1	1.21mi
21627 Calico Bush Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$3,800	$2.67	18d	1	1.35mi
21331 Hartford Hollow Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,500	$0.82	20d	1	1.43mi
23030 Cunningham Falls Trl Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1213	$2,900	$2.39	0d	243	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-25
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-23
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-19
   price $354,990
6. 2026-01-12
   listed $369,990 Active
7. 2026-01-12
   historical
8. 2025-10-28
   price $369,990
9. 2025-09-29
   listed $404,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,531
• − Property taxes: −$5,766
• − Insurance: −$1,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,758
• − Management: −$2,758
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$11,182
• Taxable loss: −$12,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,077
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $354,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $369,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $369,990 HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $404,990 HARMLS