3006 Spur Dr · Mission, TX 78574

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2000 Est $78k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to easy living in the desirable Wagon City North, a friendly and well-maintained 55+ community in the heart of Mission, Texas! Own your own lot in this move-in ready furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home, 2 living areas which features a spacious open layout, large windows for natural light, and a cozy 2nd living area perfect for enjoying your morning coffee. The kitchen area offers ample cabinet space, a built-in hutch area and comes with all major appliances. Other features include fully furnished, central A/C and heating, storage shed, golf cart storage, and covered porch. Community amenities include a Clubhouse with planned social activities, swimming pool, shuffleboard courts, library and game room. Located just minutes from shopping and dining.

Key facts

• Built 2000
• Listed 31 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.02%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,616
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Hub Dr	0.13mi	2/1.0	784 (-1%)	2mo	$65,000	$83	90
2900 Spur Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0	784 (-1%)	13mo	$69,000	$88	82
215 Covered Wagon Dr	0.38mi	2/1.5	784 (-1%)	14mo	$77,000	$98	67
202 Stage Coach Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0	900 (+14%)	9mo	$142,500	$158	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,423
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $16,882
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,817/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,028

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $287	-5% $258	+0% $228	+5% $198	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $124	-5% $176	+0% $228	+5% $280	+10% $332
Rate	-1.0pp $281	-0.5pp $255	base $228	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Palmer Rd Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	760	$1,200	$1.58	15d	1	0.80mi
707 Palmer Rd Unit 2 Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	960	$900	$0.94	15d	1	0.80mi
707 Palmer Rd Unit 3 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	960	$1,350	$1.41	15d	1	0.80mi
712 Palmer Rd Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$1,100	$1.15	15d	1	0.86mi
2008 N Cummings Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,300	$1.28	44d	1	0.88mi
1811 Perkins Ave Unit 7 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$750	$0.88	15d	1	1.00mi
1809 Ramirez St Unit 2 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,300	$1.26	44d	1	1.16mi
1400 N Dunlap Ave Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	1068	$800	$0.75	19d	1	1.32mi
1006 Fairway Dr Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,100	$1.03	44d	1	1.36mi
2903 Estevan St #3 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,400	$1.34	15d	1	1.43mi
2905 Estevan St #4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,300	$1.25	44d	1	1.43mi
2905 Estevan St #3 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,300	$1.25	24d	1	1.43mi
2903 Estevan St #4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,399	$1.32	19d	1	1.43mi
1805 Ramirez St Unit 4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	44d	1	1.47mi
1804 Ramirez St Unit 1 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,250	$1.23	24d	1	1.49mi
1500 E 24th St Unit B-6 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1010	$975	$0.97	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $105,000 Active
16. 2025-12-22
    soldstatus
17. 2025-12-19
    soldstatus Sold 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Welcome to easy living in the desirable Wagon City North, a friendly and well-maintained 55+ community in the heart of Mission, Texas! Own your own lot in this move-in ready furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home, 2 living areas which features a spacious open layout, large windows for natural light, and a cozy 2nd living area perfect for enjoying your morning coffee. The kitchen area offers ample cabinet space, a built-in hutch area and comes with all major appliances. Other features include fully furnished, central A/C and heating, storage shed, golf cart storage, and covered porch. Community amenities include a Clubhouse with planned social activities, swimming pool, shuffleboard courts, library and game room. Located just minutes from shopping and dining.

18. 2025-10-22
    status Pending 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Welcome to easy living in the desirable Wagon City North, a friendly and well-maintained 55+ community in the heart of Mission, Texas! Own your own lot in this move-in ready furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home, 2 living areas which features a spacious open layout, large windows for natural light, and a cozy 2nd living area perfect for enjoying your morning coffee. The kitchen area offers ample cabinet space, a built-in hutch area and comes with all major appliances. Other features include fully furnished, central A/C and heating, storage shed, golf cart storage, and covered porch. Community amenities include a Clubhouse with planned social activities, swimming pool, shuffleboard courts, library and game room. Located just minutes from shopping and dining.

19. 2025-10-20
    listed $74,500 Active 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Welcome to easy living in the desirable Wagon City North, a friendly and well-maintained 55+ community in the heart of Mission, Texas! Own your own lot in this move-in ready furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home, 2 living areas which features a spacious open layout, large windows for natural light, and a cozy 2nd living area perfect for enjoying your morning coffee. The kitchen area offers ample cabinet space, a built-in hutch area and comes with all major appliances. Other features include fully furnished, central A/C and heating, storage shed, golf cart storage, and covered porch. Community amenities include a Clubhouse with planned social activities, swimming pool, shuffleboard courts, library and game room. Located just minutes from shopping and dining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,817 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$105/yr (+$9/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,817
• − Insurance: −$1,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $1,197
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$287
• After-tax cash flow: $2,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+40.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $105,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-19 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-22 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $74,500 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,817 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.