6157 Midnight Pass Rd Unit E63 · Siesta Key, FL 34242

$420,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,101 sqft · Condo public records · 301 Days on market

Built 1974 $834/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BAY OAKS - JUST MINUTES FROM WORLD FAMOUS SIESTA KEY BEACH. Now is the time to make this 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo your island paradise. With weekly rentals allowed, this condo is perfect for a vacation getaway, short-term rentals, your personal island retreat, or full-time Florida living. Fully furnished and move-in ready. Enjoy poolside views from your screened porch, low HOA fees, and resort-style amenities including a heated pool, tennis courts, waterfront BBQ area, community room with pool table, and a fishing dock set in a lush, park-like setting along the bay. Centrally located on Siesta Key, you’re minutes from North and South Village shops, restaurants, and the free island trolley.

Key facts

• Waterfront bbq area
• Fishing dock
• Community pool

Tags

• SCREENED PORCH
• COMMUNITY POOL
• HEATED POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• WATERFRONT BBQ AREA
• FISHING DOCK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-461 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (19.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $420k).
• Recommended offer: $339k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#512 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,560/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 147% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $420k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $338,599 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.35%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-54,372
• Equity at exit: $107,572

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-41,664
• Equity at exit: $118,322

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34242

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 523
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$425 /mo · $5,101/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$834
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$958
• Net cashflow: $-461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,143

Max offer price $338,599

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $834 · $10,008/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,000 Active 301 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,000 Active 300 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 298 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 296 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $420,000 Active 293 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,000 Active 290 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $420,000 Active 287 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $420,000 Active 286 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $420,000 Active 285 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,000 Active 284 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,000 Active 283 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    price $420,000 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    BAY OAKS - JUST MINUTES FROM WORLD FAMOUS SIESTA KEY BEACH. Now is the time to make this 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo your island paradise. With weekly rentals allowed, this condo is perfect for a vacation getaway, short-term rentals, your personal island retreat, or full-time Florida living. Fully furnished and move-in ready. Enjoy poolside views from your screened porch, low HOA fees, and resort-style amenities including a heated pool, tennis courts, waterfront BBQ area, community room with pool table, and a fishing dock set in a lush, park-like setting along the bay. Centrally located on Siesta Key, you’re minutes from North and South Village shops, restaurants, and the free island trolley.

15. 2025-09-26
    price $430,000 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    BAY OAKS - JUST MINUTES FROM WORLD FAMOUS SIESTA KEY BEACH. Now is the time to make this 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo your island paradise. With weekly rentals allowed, this condo is perfect for a vacation getaway, short-term rentals, your personal island retreat, or full-time Florida living. Fully furnished and move-in ready. Enjoy poolside views from your screened porch, low HOA fees, and resort-style amenities including a heated pool, tennis courts, waterfront BBQ area, community room with pool table, and a fishing dock set in a lush, park-like setting along the bay. Centrally located on Siesta Key, you’re minutes from North and South Village shops, restaurants, and the free island trolley.

16. 2025-08-21
    listed $465,000 Active 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    BAY OAKS - JUST MINUTES FROM WORLD FAMOUS SIESTA KEY BEACH. Now is the time to make this 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo your island paradise. With weekly rentals allowed, this condo is perfect for a vacation getaway, short-term rentals, your personal island retreat, or full-time Florida living. Fully furnished and move-in ready. Enjoy poolside views from your screened porch, low HOA fees, and resort-style amenities including a heated pool, tennis courts, waterfront BBQ area, community room with pool table, and a fishing dock set in a lush, park-like setting along the bay. Centrally located on Siesta Key, you’re minutes from North and South Village shops, restaurants, and the free island trolley.

17. 2011-11-14
    soldstatus $175,000
18. 1990-08-02
    soldstatus $74,900
19. 1978-01-01
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,101 · $425/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,101 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$5,101
• − Insurance: −$7,219
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,378
• − Management: −$4,378
• − HOA: −$10,008
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$12,108
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,906
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Siesta Key

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #512
• US rank: #9443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Siesta Key, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 7,529
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,529
• Household income: $115,967
• Rent vs Own: 9.6% rent · 90.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Current HPI: 237.6266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+854.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $420,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $430,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Listed $465,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 1990-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records
• 1978-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,101 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.